Posted at 24 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Jul S&P Global Composite PMI 46.6,47.8 forecast,47.2 previous
•French Jul French Services PMI 47.4,48.4 forecast,48.0 previous
•French Jul French Manufacturing PMI 44.5,46.0 forecast,46.0 previous
•German Jul Manufacturing PMI 38.8,41.0 forecast,40.6 previous
•German Jul German Composite PMI 48.3,50.3 forecast,50.6 previous
•German Jul Services PMI 52.0, 53.1 forecast,54.1 previous
•German Jul S&P Global Composite PMI 48.9, 49.7 forecast,49.9 previous
•EU Jul Manufacturing PMI 42.7,43.5 forecast,43.4 previous
•EU Jul Services PMI 51.1,51.5 forecast,52.0 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 45.0, 46.1 forecast, 46.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI 50.7, 52.4 forecast, 52.8 previous
•UK Services PMI 51.5, 53.0 forecast, 53.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.759% previous
•12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.584% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.671% previous
•13:45 US Jul Manufacturing PMI 46.4 forecast ,46.3 previous
•13:45 US Jul S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1 forecast ,53.2 previous
•13:45 US Jul Services PMI 54.0 forecast ,54.4 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slid on Monday after activity data in key economies came in much softer than expected, giving markets a jolt at the start of a week packed with central bank meetings at which investors expect rate hikes in Europe and the United States. The European common currency fell 0.4% to $1.1083 , skidding after a quiet Asian session on PMI data that showed euro zone business activity shrank much more than expected in July. Investors expect both the ECB and Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points and the focus in both cases is on the signals they send around their September meetings. Softening inflation gauges might allow the Fed room to hint at a pause. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1165(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1281 (Jul 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1071(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1030 (21DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound was on track for its biggest weekly fall since February on Monday as below-forecast UK PMI data weighed on pound. Britain's private sector is growing at its weakest pace in six months in July, as orders for businesses stagnate in the face of rising interest rates and still-high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The S&P Global/CIPS composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a preliminary reading of 50.7, down from 52.8 in June in the biggest month-on-month drop in 11 months. The survey reinforced a sluggish outlook for Britain's economy, which has so far defied forecasts of recession in 2023 but has yet to feel the full impact of 13 back-to-back interest rate increases by the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2691 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2824(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2745(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting later this week. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday, with both seen hiking rates.Traders are also awaiting second-quarter U.S. GDP data on Thursday, followed by the June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index due on Friday. The dollar index , on the other hand, has recovered from 15-month lows hit last week and was up 0.2% on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8659 (11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8719(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8620(23.6%fib A), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8561(20th Jul low).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Monday as traders focused on key central bank meetings later this week for further direction. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility. Last Friday the Japanese currency dived to as weak as 141.92 per dollar, also sliding on crosses, following a report that the BOJ was leaning towards keeping its yield curve control policy unchanged, though volatility gauges have spiked as the meeting looms. The yen strengthened with the dollar down 0.47% at 141.2 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.92 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.98(Jul 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.60(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 140.03(50%fib )
Equities Recap
European equities touched five-week highs on Monday as upbeat earnings and hopes that the European Central Bank is near the end of its rate-hike cycle offset losses in Spanish stocks after the country's general election yielded no clear winner.
At (GMT 12:40 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Monday after data showed a deeper downturn in euro zone business activity, but moves were limited as investors look ahead to a widely anticipated interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,964.63 per ounce at 1045 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery were unchanged at $1,966.50.
Oil prices rose on Monday as tightening supply and hopes for Chinese stimulus underpinned Brent at well above $80 a barrel, even as traders expected more rate hikes from U.S. and European central banks.
Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $81.51 a barrel by 11 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $77.51 a barrel, also up 44 cents, or 0.5%.