Posted at 21 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Jun Core Retail Sales (YoY) -0.9%, -1.6% forecast, -1.7% previous
•UK Jun Core Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 11.976B,4.602B forecast, 4.132B previous
•UK Jun Public Sector Net Borrowing 17.67B, 27.52B forecast, 19.22B previous
•UK Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -1.0%, -1.5% forecast,-2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada May Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•12:30 Canada May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,1.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.2% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 675 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 537 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased Friday as investors looked towards next week's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting.ECB policymakers have struck a more dovish tone of late. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on July 27, according to all economists in a poll, a slight majority of whom were now also expecting another hike in September. The euro was broadly flat against the dollar at $1.11285, having dropped 0.6% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1220(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1245 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1119(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1097 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was on track for its biggest weekly fall since February on Friday, as markets reacted decisively to signs that Britain may finally be turning a page on inflation. Sterling was down 0.1% at $1.286 at 0912 GMT, putting it on track for a weekly fall of 1.74%.It climbed after data showed retail sales rose more than economists anticipated in June, but then slipped back as the dollar rallied. Separate data on Friday showed rising interest rates and high inflation caused British consumer confidence to fall last month at the fastest rate since April 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2691 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2824(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2745(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Friday ahead of a week of major central bank decisions. Central bank meetings in Europe, Japan and the United States are due next week, with the dollar steadying on bets of the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer following evidence of labour market resilience. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, touching the lowest level in two months amid ongoing labour market tightness. The dollar index which tracks the greenback against six major peers was last up 0.3% at 101.040.The index was on track for a 1.1% weekly gain, its biggest rise in two months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8674 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8689(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8616(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8571(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar headed for its largest one-day rise against the yen in a month after sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking said central bank officials were leaning towards maintaining its yield-control policy at next week's policy meeting. BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. The dollar jumped 1.3% on the day to purchase 141.8 yen, its biggest rise since late April. Just a week ago, it was trading below 138. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.92 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.62(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.60(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.59(5DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Friday, as a slump in technology stocks following software maker SAP's downbeat forecast and declines in the healthcare sector were offset by gains in energy companies that tracked oil prices higher.
At (GMT 12:25 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.36percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday as the dollar rebounded to its highest in more than a week after positive weekly U.S. jobs data renewed uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after an expected increase next week.
Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $1,962.69 per ounce by 1119 GMT, but was set for a 0.4% rise this week. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $1,965.
Oil prices rose on Friday, buoyed by evidence of tightening supplies and economic stimulus in slow-recovering China.
Brent futures were up $1.02 at $80.66 a barrel by 1134 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1 to $76.65 a barrel.