Posted at 20 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jun PPI (YoY) 0.1%,0.0% forecast,1.0% previous
•German Jun German PPI (MoM) -0.3% , -0.4% forecast, -1.4% previous
•French Jul Business Survey 100, 100 forecast, 101 previous
•US Jul Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -13.5,-10.0 forecast, -13.7 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 228K, 242K forecast, 237K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,754K, 1,729K forecast, 1,729K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 237.50K , 250.01K forecast, 246.75K previous
•US Jul Philly Fed CAPEX Index 8.60, 6.20 forecast, 9.90 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed Prices Paid 9.50 ,10.70 forecast, 10.50 previous
•US Jul Philly Fed Employment -1.0,-4.5 forecast,-0.4 previous
•US Philly Fed New Orders-15.9,-10.0 forecast,-11.0 previous
•US Philly Fed Business Conditions 29.1,10.0 forecast,12.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Jun Leading Index (MoM) -0.6% forecast,-0.7% previous
•14:00 US Consumer Confidence -16.0 forecast,-16.1 previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales 4.20M forecast,4.30M previous
•14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) 0.2% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 40B forecast,49B previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.230% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.210% previous
•17:00 US10-Year TIPS Auction 1.395% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as investors looked towards next week's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting.ECB policymakers have struck a more dovish tone of late. Governing council member Yannis Stournaras was the latest to signal future rate rises past July's likely 25 basis points increase are up in the air. Traders and analysts expect the European Central Bank to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next week, but what comes after that has been up for debate in the wake of a recent dovish tone taken by the central bank's policymakers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1220(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1245 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1169(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1097 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling continued its slide against dollar on Thursday as the UK’s declining inflation pulled back market expectations of further aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE). Data showed on Wednesday that British annual consumer price inflation fell to a much lower than expected 7.9% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rate in the 12 months to June would drop to 8.2% from May’s 8.7%. The Sterling was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2914, set for its fifth consecutive daily drop against the greenback, after falling 0.74% on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2691 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2851(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2745(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors looked ahead to a clutch of key central bank meetings. The crucial next moves from the major economy central bank meetings in Japan, Europe and the United States are all a focus of investor attention, with the Bank of England then due in the first week of August. Traders and analysts expect the European Central Bank to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next week. Markets seem a lot more certain of the Federal Reserve's next steps, with traders expecting a 25 basis point hike but no more after that. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8634 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8675(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8554(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as dovish comments from the Bank of Japan caused the yen to soften. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said this week there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, dousing speculation of a change to its "yield curve control" policy next week. With inflation having exceeded its 2% target for more than a year, markets are rife with speculation the BOJ could tweak YCC as early as this month to address the mounting costs, such as market distortions, caused by its huge bond buying to defend the yield cap. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.92 (11DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.87(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.00(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.33(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Thursday as investors assessed mixed earnings from companies in the region, although semiconductor stocks saw a heavy selloff after Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC delivered a downbeat sales forecast.
At (GMT 13:56 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.98 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.79 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices crept higher on Thursday as a lower-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories and a weaker demand outlook kept investors cautious.
September Brent futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.70 a barrel by 1255 GMT, while August U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.61 a barrel.
The August WTI contract expires on Thursday. The more active September WTI crude was 31 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $75.60.
Gold prices advanced to their highest in about two months on Thursday, driven by U.S. dollar’s weakness and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would conclude its aggressive rate-hiking cycle at its meeting next week.
Spot gold gained 0.2% to $1,980.59 per ounce by 1058 GMT, close to its highest since May 17 at $1,987.39. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.2% to $1,984.10 per ounce.