Posted at 19 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jun Housing Starts 1.434M ,1.480M forecast, 1.631M previous
•US Jun Building Permits (MoM) -3.7%,5.6% previous
•US Jun Housing Starts (MoM) -8.0%,7.2% forecast, 21.7% previous
•US Jun Building Permits 1.440M,1.490M forecast, 1.496M previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories -0.708M,-2.440M forecast, 5.946M previous
•US Distillate Fuel Production -0.054M, -0.002M forecast, 0.236M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -2.891M, -0.835M forecast, -1.605M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:50 Japan Jun Trade Balance -46.7B forecast, -1,372.5B previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Imports (YoY) -11.3% forecast, -9.9% previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Exports (YoY) 2.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Adjusted Trade Balance -0.90T forecast,-0.78T previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Employment Change 17.0K forecast,75.9K previous
•01:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 0 forecast, -4 previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Participation Rate 66.9% forecast, 66.9% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Unemployment Rate 3.6% forecast ,3.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Full Employment Change 61.7K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Wednesday as dollar strengthened even as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pause its rate-hike cycle after July. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting this month, with a majority betting that will bring an end to the central bank's current monetary tightening cycle. Investors will further keep an eye out for initial jobless claims data on Thursday for the week of July 15, forecast to rise to 242,000 from a seasonally adjusted 237,000. The dollar index rose 0.32% against a basket of currencies to 100.26. The euro fell 0.24% to $1.1202. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1194(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1169 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slid on Wednesday after lower-than-expected British inflation data suggested the Bank of England might not have to raise rates quite as high as had been expected. Britain's high rate of inflation fell by more than expected in June and was its slowest in over a year at 7.9%.Economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecast a smaller slowdown, to 8.2% in the 12 months to June from May's 8.7%. Core inflation - which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices and which the BoE uses to gauge underlying price pressures also dropped, coming in at 6.9% compared with May's three-decade high of 7.1%.Economists polled had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Sterling fell 0.81% against the greenback to $1.2929 and went as low as $1.2868, the lowest since July 11. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3022 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3049(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2913(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2826(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as investors grew hopeful that the U.S. economy could achieve a soft landing despite an aggressive interest rate-hiking campaign by the Federal Reserve. A resilient U.S. economy and historically low unemployment well over a year since the Fed began rate hikes has repeatedly confounded analysts and investors. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States. One of Canada’s major exports is oil. It settled 0.5% lower at $75.35 a barrel as investors took profits following earlier gains on tighter U.S. crude supplies and China’s pledge to reinvigorate its economic growth.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3160 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3190 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3244(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3157(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3107 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as dovish comments from the Bank of Japan caused the yen to soften. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, signalling his resolve to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being.Ueda said the BOJ will scrutinise at each policy meeting the pace of progress Japan was making in sustainably achieving its 2% target.His remarks came in response to a question on whether the central bank saw a need to tweak YCC at its rate review later this month. The greenback rose 0.55% against the Japanese yen to 139.62. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.92 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.87(May 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.77(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 137.92(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Wednesday, with UK stocks in the lead after a faster-than-expected slowdown in British inflation helped to bolster hopes of peaking interest rates and pushed homebuilders higher.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.80 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index rose modestly on Wednesday, with the blue-chip Dow registering its eighth straight day of gains as investors gauged the latest round of corporate earnings, but a decline in Microsoft held the Nasdaq near the unchanged mark.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.31 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.24 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.03 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday following new home construction data for June, but remained off their month lows as investors bet that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dipped one basis point to 3.779%, compared to an eight-month high of 4.094% set on July 7.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as investors took profits following earlier gains on tighter U.S. crude supplies and China's pledge to reinvigorate its economic growth.
Brent futures dipped 17 cents at $79.46 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 40 cents at $75.35 a barrel.
Gold prices hovered near an eight-week peak on Wednesday after recent economic data re-ignited hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon hit pause on its interest rate-hiking cycle.
Spot gold eased 0.1% at $1,977.25 per ounce by 01:43 p.m. ET (1743 GMT), as the U.S. dollar ticked up from 15-month lows.U.S. gold futures settled unchanged at $1,980.80.