Posted at 19 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jun PPI Input (MoM) -1.3%, -0.3% forecast, -1.5%previous
•UK Jun PPI Output (MoM) -0.3%,-0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK Jun RPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Jun RPI (YoY) 10.7%, 10.9% forecast, 11.3% previous
•UK Jun CPI (YoY) 7.9%, 8.2% forecast, 8.7% previous
•French Jun Car Registration (MoM) 31.1%, 9.8% previous
•French Jun French Car Registration (YoY) 11.5%, 14.8% previous
•EU Jun Core CPI (YoY) 5.5%, 5.4% forecast, 5.3% previous
•EU Jun CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 5.5%, 4.9% forecast, 6.1% previous
•EU Jun CPI (YoY) 5.5%,5.5% forecast, 6.1% previous
•EU May Construction Output (MoM) 0.18%, 0.10% forecast, -0.60% previous
•EU May CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jun Housing Starts 1.480M forecast, 1.631M previous
•12:30 US Jun Building Permits (MoM) 5.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun Housing Starts (MoM) 7.2% forecast, 21.7% previous
•12:30 US Jun Building Permits 1.490M forecast, 1.496M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.440M forecast, 5.946M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.002M forecast, 0.236M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.835M forecast, -1.605M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro eased on Wednesday as dollar strengthened even as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pause its rate-hike cycle after July. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting this month, with a majority betting that will bring an end to the central bank's current monetary tightening cycle. Investors will further keep an eye out for initial jobless claims data on Thursday for the week of July 15, forecast to rise to 242,000 from a seasonally adjusted 237,000. The euro was down a fraction at $1.12185, away from the previous session's 17-month peak of $1.1276. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1194(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1169 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slid on Wednesday after lower-than-expected British inflation data suggested the Bank of England might not have to raise rates quite as high as had been expected. Britain's high rate of inflation fell by more than expected in June and was its slowest in over a year at 7.9%.Economists polled by Reuters had mostly forecast a smaller slowdown, to 8.2% in the 12 months to June from May's 8.7%. Core inflation - which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices and which the BoE uses to gauge underlying price pressures - also dropped, coming in at 6.9% compared with May's three-decade high of 7.1%.Economists polled had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3022 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3049(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2913(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2826(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as traders assessed the U.S. rate outlook . The U.S. dollar managed to nudge up after a mixed retail sales report overnight, with sales growth missing forecasts in June but consumers boosted or maintained spending elsewhere, pointing to consumer resilience that is likely to keep the economy on a solid growth path. The greenback has paused its steep decline from last week in the wake of a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reading that led to traders pricing in an imminent peak in U.S. rates.Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar rebounded from a 15-month low hit in the previous session .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8592 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8628(July 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8554(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as dovish comments from the Bank of Japan caused the yen to soften. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, signalling his resolve to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being.Ueda said the BOJ will scrutinise at each policy meeting the pace of progress Japan was making in sustainably achieving its 2% target.His remarks came in response to a question on whether the central bank saw a need to tweak YCC at its rate review later this month. The dollar climbed to a one-week high on the Japanese yen and was last up 0.68% at 139.81. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.92 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.87(May 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.77(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 137.92(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday on a boost from shares of Kering after top management changes at the luxury group, while London stocks firmed following data which showed a faster-than-expected slowdown in British inflation.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.62 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.27percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Wednesday steadied near eight-week highs reached in the previous session after economic data raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is near the end of its interest rate hiking.
Spot gold was unchanged at $1,978.49 per ounce by 0933 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $1,982.20.
Global oil benchmark Brent briefly hovered above $80 on Wednesday, buoyed by China's pledge to reinvigorate economic growth and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates soon.
Brent futures were up 26 cents at $79.89 a barrel by 1120 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 9 cents to $75.84 per barrel.