Posted at 19 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Jun Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.7%,3.4% forecast, 3.8% previous
•Canada Jun Median CPI (YoY) 3.9%,3.7% forecast, 3.9% previous
•Canada Jun Common CPI (YoY) 5.1%,5.0% forecast, 5.2% previous
•Canada Jun Core CPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.5% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Canada Jun Core CPI (MoM) -0.1%,0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada Jun CPI (YoY) 2.8%,3.0% forecast, 3.4% previous
•Canada Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Jun Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.3%,0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (YoY) -0.40%, 1.10%forecast,0.23% previous
•US Jun Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9%,79.5% forecast, 79.6% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -0.5%,0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•US May Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Jul NAHB Housing Market Index 56, 56 forecast,55 previous
•US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.1%, 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
• GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -1.0% ,1.9% forecast,-3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 03:00 New Jun Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings 59.50% forecast,58.70% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday as remarks from European Central Bank officials weighed on euro. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel on Monday was cautious about a further tightening move in September, saying that “we will see what the data will tell us, a clearly data dependent tone from one of the most hawkish Governing Council members.Another hawkish ECB governing council member, Klaas Knot, said in an interview on Tuesday that rate hikes beyond July are not certain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound against dollar eased on Tuesday as investors awaited crucial British inflation data that will shape expectations for Bank of England policy, and hence the currency, in the coming months. British inflation has remained much higher than in the United States and to a lesser degree the euro zone - and as a result markets expect more rate rises from the BoE, which surprised traders with a 50 basis point rate increase in June. Sterling was last at $1.3034, and was also lower against the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3082 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3145(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3024(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, moving closer to a recent 10-month high, as investors cheered domestic inflation and housing data. Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped to 2.8% in June, a 27-month low and below the 3% rate expected by economists. Separate data showed Canadian housing starts rose 41% in June compared with the previous month, the largest increase in the last 10 years. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3175 to the greenback, or 75.90 U.S. cents, after clawing back its earlier decline. On Friday, it touched its strongest level since September at 1.3090.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3171 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3256(38.2% fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3156 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3078(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rebounded against the yen on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week.Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Data for May was also revised higher to show sales gaining 0.5% instead of 0.3% as previously reported.Core sales showed more resilience, however. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.75 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.64(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 137.77(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday as Swiss stocks firmed on a forecast upgrade by drugmaker Novartis, though a slide in shares of Sweden's Tele2 pushed the telecom sector index to its lowest level in over six months.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.38 percent.
U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday, partly boosted by a round of solid bank earnings which helped put the Dow on track for its longest streak of daily gains in more than two years.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.06 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.71 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.76 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday before rising slightly, on news that retail sales grew in June at a slower pace than expected.
The benchmark 10-year note yield rose to 3.773% from around 3.759% before the data's release. It initially dropped to a three-week low of 3.740% on the data.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose over 1% on Tuesday to a more than one-month high, bolstered by a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields, with investors betting that recent U.S. economic readings make the case for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $1,975.49 per ounce by 2:03 p.m. ET (1803 GMT), after hitting the highest since late May. U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher at $1,980.80.
Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Tuesday after China said it will act to support economic growth in the world's biggest oil importer and on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates soon and a forecast decline in U.S. output.
Brent futures rose $1.13, or 1.4%, to settle at $79.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.60, or 2.2%, to settle at $75.75.