Posted at 18 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italy May Resi Prop Prices (YoY) 2.40%, 3.60% previous
•Italy May Resi Prop Prices (MoM) -0.20%, 0.00 previous
•Canada Jun Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.7%,3.4% forecast, 3.8% previous
•Canada Jun Median CPI (YoY) 3.9%,3.7% forecast, 3.9% previous
•Canada Jun Common CPI (YoY) 5.1%,5.0% forecast, 5.2% previous
•Canada Jun Core CPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.5% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Canada Jun Core CPI (MoM) -0.1%,0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada Jun CPI (YoY) 2.8%,3.0% forecast, 3.4% previous
•Canada Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Jun Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.3%,0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (YoY) -0.40%, 1.10%forecast,0.23% previous
•US Jun Capacity Utilization Rate 78.9%,79.5% forecast, 79.6% previous
•US Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -0.5%,0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US May Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US Jul NAHB Housing Market Index 56 forecast,55 previous
•14:00 US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•15:00 US GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1.9% forecast,-3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday as remarks from European Central Bank officials weighed on euro. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel on Monday was cautious about a further tightening move in September, saying that “we will see what the data will tell us, a clearly data dependent tone from one of the most hawkish Governing Council members.Another hawkish ECB governing council member, Klaas Knot, said in an interview on Tuesday that rate hikes beyond July are not certain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady above $1.30 on Tuesday, around its highest in 15 months, a day ahead of crucial British inflation data that will shape expectations for Bank of England policy, and hence the currency, in the coming months. British inflation has remained much higher than in the United States - and to a lesser degree the euro zone - and as a result markets expect more rate rises from the BoE, which surprised traders with a 50 basis point rate increase in June.Sterling was last at $1.3090, up 0.12% on the day, and was also a fraction stronger against the euro, which traded at 85.86 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3113 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3064(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3011(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited fresh catalysts to gauge for downside in the wake of last week's cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation. The index had clocked its worst week of 2023 last week, after data showed U.S. inflation subsided further with consumer prices registering their smallest annual increase in more than two years. That took pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.Money markets have almost fully priced a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Fed at its policy meeting later this month, but see rates coming down as early as December. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8612 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8672(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8554(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Tuesday as investors look to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy meeting next week for a potential phasing out of its ultra-dovish policy stance.But even a small change to Japan's prolonged ultra-loose policy could upend global financial markets as it would symbolise how stubbornly high inflation is finally forcing the BOJ to relent. Shifting policy too soon would also run counter to Ueda's repeated remarks calling for the need to patiently" sustain easy policy, and put his credibility on the line just three months in the job. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.92 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.50(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.97(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher after a muted start on Tuesday, with Swiss stocks outpacing regional peers following a forecast upgrade by drugmaker Novartis, though a decline in telecom stocks capped the gains.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished down by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday supported by a softer dollar, while investors awaited U.S. retail sales data that could have a bearing on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook as inflation shows signs of cooling.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,962.19 per ounce by 1144 GMT. U.S. gold futures advanced 0.5% to $1,965.90.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors weighed a possible tightening of U.S. crude supplies against weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth.
Brent crude was up 26 cents at $78.76 a barrel by 1151 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 28 cents to $74.43 a barrel in relatively muted trading, with the contract set to expire on Thursday.