Posted at 17 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Canada May Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians-2.78B , 2.37B previous
• US Jul NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.10,-4.30 forecast, 6.60 previous
• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 165.6K,148.8% previous
• Canada May Wholesale Sales (MoM) 3.5%,3.5% forecast,-1.4% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.759%,3.761% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.584% ,3.556% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.671%,3.673% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.671%,5.250% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.250%,5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 0.4%forecast,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases
• 01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Monday but gains were limited as investors awaited for more cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening amid signs of cooling inflation. Retail sales for June on Tuesday will be the main U.S. economic data for the week, though the news is unlikely to sway the path of monetary policy or market direction.Data on U.S. retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.3% ex-autos, continuing the slower trend but solid enough to fit into the market's soft-landing theme.Futures are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. That implies the market sees a low chance of further rate hikes after the Fed concludes a two-day meeting on July 26. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the dollar on Monday ahead of a pivotal inflation report, while speculators raised their bullish positions on the currency to the highest since 2014, data showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics releases its latest inflation data on Wednesday. Although analysts expect headline consumer prices to moderate, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food components, is expected to remain at an elevated 7.1%. The pound has surged in June and July last week hitting its highest since April 2022 at $1.3144 as markets ratchet up expectations for interest rate rises as British inflation, the highest in the G7, makes slow progress in falling back towards target . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3113 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3050(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3011(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as domestic data showed wholesale trade notching its biggest monthly advance since November 2021, but the gain for the currency was modest after a setback on Friday. Canadian wholesale trade grew by 3.5% in May from April, helped by higher sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector, data from Statistics Canada showed. The data adds to evidence of the economy picking up in May. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, settled 1.7% lower at $74.15 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3185 to the greenback, or 75.84 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3161 to 1.3232 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3225 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3280 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3181 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3157(23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Monday as traders ramped up their bets for an imminent end to U.S. rate rises.Last week's U.S. inflation data fuelled investors' bets that the Federal Reserve was close to the end of its rate hike cycle, and the dollar index had its biggest weekly decline since November 2022, falling 2.25% on the week.U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly three years, data showed on Thursday, a day after data showed consumer prices rose modestly last month. The dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 138.16, after last week's 2.4% drop. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.82 (5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.02(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.87(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.32(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday as Richemont led a slide among luxury firms on weaker-than-expected organic sales growth and as lacklustre economic growth in China raised concerns about demand from the world's second-biggest economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.23percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1. 12 percent.
Wall Street and global shares rebounded modestly on Monday on favorable economic data and bargain hunting, but remained within sight of recent six-week lows, as investors prepared for higher interest rates in the United States and Europe.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.22 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.39 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.93 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Monday after rising slightly on New York manufacturing data in the morning, as market participants await a signal for monetary policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting next week.
Benchmark 10-year note yields dipped slightly on the day to 3.810%, from around 3.824% before the data. They are down from an eight-month high of 4.094% reached on July 7.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Monday, with bullion traders still doubtful about whether the Federal Reserve may soon signal an end to its monetary tightening path.
Spot gold was steady at $1,953.91 per ounce at 1:42 p.m. EDT (1742 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $1,956.40.
Oil dropped by more than 1.5% on Monday after weaker than expected Chinese economic growth raised doubts over the strength of demand in the world's second biggest oil consumer, and a partial restart of halted Libyan output also pressured prices.
Brent crude settled down $1.37 or 1.7%, at $78.50 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed $1.27, or 1.7%, lower at $74.15 on a second straight day of losses for both contracts.