Posted at 17 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Jun HICP (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
• Italian CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada May Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 2.37B previous
• 12:30 US Jul NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -4.30 forecast, 6.60 previous
• 12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 148.8% previous
• 12:30 Canada May Wholesale Sales (MoM) 3.5% forecast,-1.4% previous
• 12:30 Canada May Foreign Securities Purchases 13.52B previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.761% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.556% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.673% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Monday as investors awaited for more cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening amid signs of cooling inflation. Data in the U.S. last week hinted at a disinflationary trend consumer prices grew at their slowest pace in more than two years, producer inflation saw the smallest increase in nearly three years, and consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level in nearly two years. The euro was steady at $1.1232 , having surged 2.4% last week to a 2023 high.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound hovered around $1.31 against the dollar on Monday ahead of a pivotal inflation report, while speculators raised their bullish positions on the currency to the highest since 2014, data showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics releases its latest inflation data on Wednesday. Although analysts expect headline consumer prices to moderate, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food components, is expected to remain at an elevated 7.1%. The pound has surged in June and July - last week hitting its highest since April 2022 at $1.3144 as markets ratchet up expectations for interest rate rises as British inflation, the highest in the G7, makes slow progress in falling back towards target. Sterling was last little changed against the dollar at $1.3094. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3113 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3050(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3011(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as signs of slowing U.S. inflation raised expectations of a pause in Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes after this month. This week's data macro calendar is light and Fed officials are in their blackout period ahead of their July policy meeting, leaving investors with the big question of whether last week's market moves will continue or reverse. Markets imply around a 96% chance of the Fed hiking to 5.25-5.5% this month, but only around a 25% probability of yet a further rise by November. The dollar, which fell 0.1% against a basket of major currencies on Monday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8653 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8702(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8580(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday as traders ramped up their bets for an imminent end to U.S. rate rises.Last week's U.S. inflation data fuelled investors' bets that the Federal Reserve was close to the end of its rate hike cycle, and the dollar index had its biggest weekly decline since November 2022, falling 2.25% on the week.U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly three years, data showed on Thursday, a day after data showed consumer prices rose modestly last month. The dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 138.16, after last week's 2.4% drop. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.82 (5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.02(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.87(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.32(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday as luxury group Richemont slumped on weaker-than-expected organic sales growth and lacklustre economic growth in China raised concerns about demand from the world's second-biggest economy.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished down by 1.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Monday, buoyed by a softer dollar, as investors awaited for more cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening amid signs of cooling inflation.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,954.13 per ounce by 0924 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,958.10.
Oil dropped by more than 1% on Monday after weaker than expected Chinese economic growth fuelled concern over demand in the world's second-biggest oil consumer while a partial restart of halted Libyan output also pressured prices.
Brent crude fell 96 cents or 1.2%, to $78.91 a barrel by 1153 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 90 cents, or 1.2%, to $74.52 on a second straight day of losses for both contracts.