Posted at 14 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jun WPI (MoM) -0.2%, -1.2%forecast, -1.1% previous
•German WPI (YoY) -2.9%,-1.2% forecast,-2.6% previous
•Sweden Jun CPI (YoY) 9.3%,9.1% forecast,9.7% previous
•Swiss Jun PPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
•EU May Trade Balance -0.3B,-7.6B forecast,-11.7B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -11.1% forecast,-10.1% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY)-3.6% forecast,-5.9% previous
•12:30 Canada May Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.8% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-1.9% previous
•12:30 US Jun Import Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.6% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.3% forecast,3.3% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 65.5 forecast,64.4 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations 61.8 forecast,61.5 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Current Conditions 70.4 forecast, 69.0 previous
•17:00 US Jul U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 680 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 540 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Friday on bets the Federal Reserve will soon hit the brakes on interest rate hikes.. Data on Thursday showed U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, providing more evidence the economy had entered a disinflation phase.Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the labor market remained tight.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he’s not ready to call an all clear on U.S. inflation and favors more rate hikes this year, saying the upcoming July meeting should bring an increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1240(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held near 15-month high on Friday as bets that the Federal Reserve was nearly done raising rates supported riskier assets. Data on Thursday showed U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, providing more evidence the economy had entered a disinflation phase, while jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the labour market remained tight. The markets, however, have mostly priced in one rate hike at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting, but the odds of further increases have dropped. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3113 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3200(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3095(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3011(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar held near recent lows against the Swiss franc on Friday as dollar took a beating as cooling U.S. inflation stoked speculation that Federal Reserve could pause its interest rate hikes after this month. U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly three years, data showed on Thursday, a day after data showed consumer prices rose modestly last month. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, edged 0.06% higher at 99.827, after touching a 15-month low of 99.574 earlier. The index is down 2.4% for the week, its biggest weekly decline in eight months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8612 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8695(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8574(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar recovewre some ground against the yen on Friday as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve was nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices growing at their slowest pace in more than two years, then on Thursday data showed the smallest increase in U.S. producer inflation in nearly three years. Fed officials remain cautious, with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller saying he is not ready to call an all-clear on U.S. inflation and favours more rate rises this year. The Japanese yen weakened 0.25% to 138.41 per dollar and is on course for its best week against the dollar since January. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.81 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.36(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.05(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.59(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Friday, but remained on course to log their biggest weekly percentage jump in over three months on hopes that easing inflation would allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes soon.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Friday having gained in the previous five sessions as growing expectations of a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes set bullion on course for its biggest weekly gain since April.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,955.90 per ounce by 0952 GMT, but has gained 1.6% so far this week and earlier hit its highest since June 16. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $1,960.50.
Global benchmark Brent crude hovered above $81 a barrel on Friday, with bullish sentiment over U.S. demand bolstered by supply disruption in Libya and Nigeria.
Both Brent and WTI futures were down slightly at 1207 GMT, with Brent 9 cents lower at $81.27 a barrel and WTI down 11 cents at $76.78.