Posted at 13 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK May Construction Output (MoM) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
•UK May Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.2%,-0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK May Industrial Production (YoY) -2.3%,-2.3% forecast,-1.9% previous
•UK May U.K. Construction Output (YoY) 0.2%,0.8% forecast, 3.6% previous
•UK May GDP (MoM) -0.1%, -0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK May Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.0%,-0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK May GDP (YoY) -0.4%, -0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK May Trade Balance -18.72B , -14.70B forecast,-15.00B previous
•UK May Trade Balance Non-EU -6.76B, -6.45B forecast,-5.04B previous
•UK May Industrial Production (MoM) -0.6%, -0.4% forecast,-0.3% previous
•France Jun CPI (MoM) 0.20%, -0.10% previous
•France Jun CPI (YoY) 4.50%, 5.10% previous
•France Jun HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•France Jun French CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,1.0% previous
•EU May Industrial Production (YoY) -2.2%,-1.2% forecast,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Calendar (GMT)
•12:30 US Jun PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.8% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•12:30 US Jun PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,723K forecast, 1,720K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 255.39K forecast, 253.25K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 250K forecast, 248K previous
•18:00 US Jun Federal Budget Balance -175.0B forecast,-240.0B previous
•18:00 US Fed's Balance Sheet 8,298B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•22:45 US Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Thursday traders took surprisingly slow U.S. inflation as a signal U.S. interest rate rises will be all but finished by month's end. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Headline annual CPI fell to 3% and has been dropping since hitting a peak at 9.6% a year earlier. Interest rate futures showed markets have fully priced a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, but expectations of any further increases are being wound back. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1180(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose for the sixth session running to a new 15-month high on Thursday after data showed the British economy shrank by less than expected in May.Figures showed the economy contracted 0.1% in May, after growth of 0.2% the previous month. Economists expected a contraction of 0.3%.Sterling rose to $1.3061, its highest since April 2022, and was last up 0.51% to $1.3057. Data on Tuesday showed that British wages rose at the joint highest rate on record in the three months to May, keeping the pressure on the BoE. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3074 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3100(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2980(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2915(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as dollar took a beating as surprisingly slow U.S. inflation, which showed the consumer price index increased 0.2% in June, triggered bets that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate hike cycle. Investors' focus turns on Thursday to initial jobless claims data for the week to July 8 which is expected to deliver a reading of 250,000 versus 248,000 the prior week - and June's producer price index data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8674 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8875 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8629(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8600 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Thursday market focus turns to whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might soon tweak its yield control policy. Additionally, markets will parse remarks by Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller to gauge the central bank's tone on monetary policy tightening. Markets will closely watch data on U.S. producer prices later in the day, which is also expected to show inflation easing on a yearly basis. The yen , which has gained 4% in the last five days, held steady against the dollar at 138.565.Strong resistance can be seen at 140.22(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.23(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 136.608(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, with technology stocks in the lead, as hopes that the Federal Reserve's post-pandemic tightening cycle was close to an end due to cooling U.S. inflation overshadowed weak trade data from China.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.81 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed to their highest in about a month on Thursday on a weaker dollar after U.S. inflation data raised investor hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon stop tightening its monetary policy.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,958.99 per ounce by 1040 GMT, its highest since June 16. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.1% to $1,962.90.
Global oil benchmark Brent hovered above $80 a barrel on Thursday after U.S. inflation data implied interest rates in the world's biggest economy are close to their peak.
Brent crude futures were up 20 cents to $80.31 per barrel by 1135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 11 cents at $75.86.