Posted at 12 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish Jun HICP (MoM) 0.6%, 0.6%forecast,-0.1%previous
•Spanish Jun Core CPI (YoY) 5.9%,5.9% forecast,6.1% previous
•Spanish Jun CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.0% previous
•Spanish Jun HICP (YoY) 1.6%,1.6% forecast,2.9% previous
•Spanish Jun CPI (YoY) 1.9%,1.9% forecast,3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jun CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.25% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core CPI Index 309.03 forecast,307.82 previous
•12:30 US Jun Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Jun CPI (MoM )0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun CPI Index, n.s.a. 305.22 forecast,304.13 previous
•12:30 US Jun Core CPI (YoY) 5.0% forecast,5.3% previous
•12:30 US Jun CPI (YoY) 3.1% forecast,4.0% previous
•15:00 US Jun Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast,4.75% previous
•14:00 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•14:00 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•15:00 Canada BOC Press Conference
•15:00 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•15:00 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•20:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Currencies Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Wednesdays as investors awaited highly anticipated U.S. inflation data that could give hints as to the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released at 1230 GMT, and analysts polled predict inflation of 3.1% year on year for June, down from 4.0% in May. The dollar last traded around 0.2% weaker against a basket of global currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1030 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1048 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0974(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.096908( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling touched a fresh 15-month high on Wednesday after a Bank of England (BoE) banking system stress test showed Britain’s largest lenders have enough capital to ride out a potential economic crisis, firming bets for more BoE rate hikes ahead. The test showed Britain’s eight biggest banks had enough capital to weather theoretical shocks under a scenario which the BoE said was more severe than the global financial turmoil of 2008 when British taxpayers had to bail out several lenders. The pound rose as high as $1.2970, its highest since April 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2962 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2994(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2858(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2808(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Wednesday head of a key read of U.S. inflation. Investors were laser-focused on U.S. inflation data due later on. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to have risen 5% on an annual basis in June. The figures could give a steer on how much more the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates.A number of indicators are pointing clearly to a marked drop in inflation, including used-car prices, meaning some in the market are looking for a rise of just 0.2% in the core rate in June. Economists polled expect a rise of 0.3%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8854(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8888 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8762(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Wednesday as growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will unveil changes to its ultra-low interest-rate policy at this month's meeting boosted yen. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until there is clearer evidence that inflation will sustainably hit 2% backed by domestic demand. Renewed market speculation of a near-term policy tweak has pushed up Japanese long-term interest rates and the yen. The dollar fell by as much as 0.76% against yen to a one-month low of 139.32. It was last down 0.6% at 139.55.Strong resistance can be seen at 140.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.37(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.35(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 138.68(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday ahead of key U.S. inflation data which will determine whether the Federal Reserve could end its rate hikes soon, while major British lenders climbed after the Bank of England's stress test.
At (GMT 12:11 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.40percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.88 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.76 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were firmer near three-week highs on Wednesday as investors held their breath ahead of the much anticipated U.S. inflation data that could drive the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.
Spot gold were up 0.1% to $1,933.96 per ounce by 1156 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $1,939.50.
Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday in a market caught between expectations supply cuts by the world's biggest fuel exporters will drive prices higher and concerns global economic weakness will sap demand.
Brent futures had edged up 20 cents to $79.60 a barrel by 1145 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 30 cents to $75.13 a barrel.