Posted at 11 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK May Average Earnings Index +Bonus 6.9%,6.8% forecast,6.5% previous
•UK Jun Claimant Count Change 25.7K, -8.6K forecast, -13.6K previous
•UK May Average Earnings ex Bonus 7.3%, 7.1% forecast, 7.2% previous
•UK May Unemployment Rate 4.0%, 3.8% forecast, 3.8% previous
• UK May Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 102K, 125K forecast,250K previous
• German Jun CPI (YoY) 6.4%,6.4% forecast,6.1% previous
•German Jun CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•German Jul ZEW Current Conditions -59.5,-60.0 forecast,-56.5 previous
•German Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment -14.7,-10.5 forecast,-8.5 previous
•EU Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment -12.2,-10.2 forecast,-10.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.7% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 forecast, 41.7 previous
•15:30 US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.930% previous
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.202% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday after data showed German investor morale fell more than expected in July. According to the ZEW economic research institute's report on Tuesday, German investor sentiment experienced a decline in July. The economic sentiment index dropped to -14.7 points, marking a significant decrease compared to the -8.5 points recorded in June. This decline aligns with the latest Ifo survey on German business morale and the Sentix index for the euro zone, both of which exhibited larger-than-anticipated fall. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1037 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0908( (5DMA).
GBP/USD: British pound reached its highest level against the US dollar in 15 months as gains were prompted by encouraging labor data from the United Kingdom, which reinforced market expectations of forthcoming interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BOE). Tuesday data showed a key measure of British wages matched its highest growth rate on record, though the unemployment rate did rise unexpectedly. The pound rose as high as $1.2913, its highest since April 2022, and was last trading just shy of that level, up 0.37%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2900 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2932(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2858(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2802(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials indicated that the central bank was approaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle. While some Fed officials mentioned the necessity of further interest rate increases to combat inflation, they also hinted that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle was nearing. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8900(38.2%fibA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8934 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8806(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8777(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, with the possibility of a quicker end to the tightening cycle. The focus this week will be on U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data due on Wednesday, with core CPI in June expected to have risen 0.3% month-on-month, as per poll.The Japanese yen has emerged biggest gainer, gaining of around 0.6%. Its last trading at 140.405 yen per dollar.Strong resistance can be seen at 141.31(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.58(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.16(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.68(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday as investors expressed optimism regarding the potential pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle. while China's policy measures to prop up its battered real estate sector also boosted sentiment.
At (GMT 12:41 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 1.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices scaled a near three-week high on Tuesday, drawing support from a weaker dollar, while investors positioned for U.S. inflation data that could have a bearing on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path.
Spot gold was up 0.7% to $1,937.70 per ounce at 1011 GMT, set for a third consecutive session of gains. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.7% to $1,943.60.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as traders assessed supply cuts implemented by major oil-exporting countries as well as expectations of increased demand in the developing world during the second half of 2023.
Brent crude futures rose 35 cents to $78.04 a barrel by 01127 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 38 cents at $73.37.