Posted at 10 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Finnish May Industry Output (YoY) 1.7%, -2.4% previous
•EU Jul Sentix Investor Confidence -22.5 , -17.9 forecast,-17.0 previous
• Greek May Industrial Production (YoY) 1.4%, 4.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.697% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.439% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.584% previous
•14:00 US May Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US May Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun CB Employment Trends Index 116.26 forecast,116.15 previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:30 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•15:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•19:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Monday as hawkish messages from central bank policymakers and resilient U.S. economic data fuelled concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period.U.S. consumer prices data scheduled for Wednesday is expected to show a slowdown in June inflation. Fed officials have been mostly hawkish in their communications, while markets have also priced in higher rates in Europe and the UK. Canada's central bank meets this week and markets imply a 67% chance of another hike.The risk of higher global rates for longer has caused havoc in bond markets, where U.S. 10-year yields jumped 23 basis points last week, German yields 24 basis points and UK yields 26 basis points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1005(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1037 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0908( (5DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated on Monday but remained near week’s 15-month highs against the dollar as investors became convinced that Bank of England will take a tough line on inflation by raising rates further. The main data point for UK markets this week are wage growth figures on Tuesday, while investors will also be looking out for remarks from both Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and finance minister Jeremy Hunt, who will address the City of London’s financial elite at an annual dinner later on Monday. Sterling was last down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2789 and down 0.3% versus the euro at 85.69 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2852 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2884(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2751(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2702(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday recovering from a knee-jerk reaction to Friday data showing U.S. job gains were the smallest in two-and-a-half years, .The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, was up 0.15% at 102.44 having tumbled 0.87% on Friday, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June, missing market expectations for the first time in 15 months. While details in the employment report reflecting persistently strong wage growth underscored market pricing of a further rate hike later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8942(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8999 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8880(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8853(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday but gains were limited as investors traded cautiously ahead of U.S. inflation data expected later this week to gauge the impact of interest rate hikes and if more policy tightening was on the cards . Markets still think the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates this month, but a weak CPI might lessen the risk of a further move in September.Currently futures imply around a 90% probability of a rise to 5.25%-5.5% this month, and a 24% chance of a move in September.Strong resistance can be seen at 143.49(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.32(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.70(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.44(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares recovered from early losses on Monday, as gains in oil and insurance stocks offset the impact of weak inflation data out of China that highlighted sluggish demand in the world's second largest economy.
At (GMT 13:14 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat on Monday as investors traded cautiously ahead of U.S. inflation data expected later this week to gauge the impact of interest rate hikes and if more policy tightening was on the cards.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,923.69 per ounce by 1144 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% to $1,929.10.
Oil prices dipped on Monday after weak economic data from top consumers the United States and China, although expected crude supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia limited losses.
Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $77.74 a barrel by 1005 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was also off 72 cents, or 1%, at $73.14 a barrel.