Posted at 07 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US job growth slows; wage gains remain strong
•US Jun Manufacturing Payrolls 7K, 0K forecast, -2K previous
•US Jun Average Weekly Hours 34.4,34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•US Jun Private Nonfarm Payrolls 149K, 200K forecast, 283K previous
•US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls 209K, 225K forecast, 339K previous
•US Jun Government Payrolls 60.0K,7.0K forecast, 56.0K previous
•US Jun Unemployment Rate 3.6%, 3.6% forecast, 3.7% previous
•US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.4%,4.2% forecast,4.3% previous
•US Jun Participation Rate 62.6%,62.6% forecast, 62.6% previous
•US Jun U6 Unemployment Rate 6.9%,6.6% forecast,6.7% previous
•US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•Canada Jun Employment Change 59.9K,20.0K forecast,-17.3K previous
•Canada Jun Full Employment Change 109.6K,-32.7K previous
•Canada Jun Part Time Employment Change -49.8K,15.5K previous
•Canada Jun Unemployment Rate 5.4%, 5.3% forecast,-5.2% previous
• Canada Jun Participation Rate 65.7%, 65.5% forecast,65.5% previous
•Canada Jun Ivey PMI 50.2, 51.5 forecast, 53.5 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 540,545 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 680,674 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose sharply against dollar on Friday after signs of a less resilient U.S. labor market reduced the outlook for how long the Federal Reserves will keep interest rates higher. The U.S. economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, the Labor Department said in an employment report that also showed 110,000 fewer jobs were created in April and May than earlier reported.A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed's target rate, a rate hike this month is likely. The dollar index fell 0.776% at 102.280, while the euro was up 0.72% to $1.0964. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0976(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1018(June 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0915(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0899( (5DMA).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Friday as dollar eased after data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in June. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 209,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said, shy of the 225,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters and the smallest monthly gain in 2-1/2 years. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.7% in May, indicating the labor market remains tight. The market is now looking to consumer price index (CPI) data due out next Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2846(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2895(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2736(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2685(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, rebounding from a four-week low, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data bolstered expectations for another interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Canada’s economy added 59,900 jobs in June, the most since January and far higher than a median forecast for a gain of 20,000, while the jobless rate rose to 5.4% from 5.2% as more people searched for work . The Canadian dollar was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3270 to the greenback, or 75.36 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its weakest level since June 8 at 1.3387. For the week, the currency was down 0.3% .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3316 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3377 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3270(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3214 (61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Friday after data showed that U.S. jobs growth slowed more than expected in June. The U.S. added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June, although persistently strong wage growth pointed to still-tight labor market conditions, U.S. government data showed. The Fed is still widely expected to raise rates at its meeting later this month after pausing in June, as job growth remains above the pace in the decade before the pandemic.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he does not disagree with his fellow U.S. central bankers that rates will need to rise a couple more times this year to beat back too-high inflation .Strong resistance can be seen at 143.00(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.14(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.69(30DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 141.44(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares eked out gains on Friday as data pointing to slowing U.S. job growth eased concerns about interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve but did little to change the main STOXX 600 index's worst weekly showing in almost four months.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0. 32 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 42 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes ended lower on Friday in a seesaw session, as investors digested a U.S. jobs report that showed weaker-than-expected growth and awaited more economic data and corporate earnings in the weeks ahead.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.55 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.29 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.13 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dialed down on Friday, although longer-dated yields were higher on the session, after a reading on the labor market soothed concerns the Federal Reserve would aggressively raise interest rates.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 0.7 basis points to 4.048% after earlier rising to as much as 4.094%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday and were on track for their first weekly gain in four as the dollar and bond yields fell after weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls numbers cast doubts over the trajectory of interest rate hikes beyond July yet again.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,926.54 per ounce at 2:06 p.m. EDT (1806 GMT). Bullion was up 0.4% so far this week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $1,932.50.
Oil prices climbed about 3% to a nine-week high on Friday as supply concerns and technical buying outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil.
Brent futures rose $1.95, or 2.6%, to settle at $78.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose $2.06, or 2.9%, to settle at $73.86.