Posted at 07 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Jun Reserve Assets Total 212,396.0M, 219,732.0M previous
•French May Imports 60.8B,60.5B previous
•French May Exports 52.3B,50.0B previous
•French May Trade Balance -8.4B,-9.0B forecast,-9.7B previous
•French May Current Account -0.70B,0.60B forecast,-0.10B previous
•Italian May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•Italian May Retail Sales (YoY) 3.0%,4.2% forecast,3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data ( GMT)
•12:30 US Jun Manufacturing Payrolls 0K forecast, -2K previous
•12:30 US Jun Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Jun Private Nonfarm Payrolls 200K forecast, 283K previous
•12:30 US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls 225K forecast, 339K previous
•12:30 US Jun Government Payrolls 7.0K forecast, 56.0K previous
•12:30 US Jun Unemployment Rate 3.6% forecast, 3.7% previous
•12:30 US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.2% forecast,4.3% previous
•12:30 US Jun Participation Rate 62.6% forecast, 62.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun U6 Unemployment Rate 6.6% forecast,6.7% previous
•12:30 US Jun Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Employment Change 20.0K forecast,-17.3K previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Full Employment Change -32.7K previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Part Time Employment Change 15.5K previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Unemployment Rate 5.3% forecast,-5.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Participation Rate 65.5% forecast,65.5% previous
•14:00 Canada Jun Ivey PMI n.s.a 60.1 previous
•14:00 Canada Jun Ivey PMI 51.5 forecast, 53.5 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 545 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 674 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•16:45 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthen against dollar on Friday as investors awaited a key U.S. jobs report and weighed the prospect of higher-for-longer Federal Reserve interest rates against the economic growth outlook. Investors now await the Labour Department’s employment report for further confirmation on the Fed’s likely strategy. A The release follows data on Thursday that showed private payrolls surged last month, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased only moderately last week, suggesting the jobs market is on solid ground. survey of economists showed nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 225,000 jobs last month after rising 339,000 in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0899(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0957(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0793( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound on Friday edged back towards a two-week high reached against the U.S. dollar the day before, supported by interest rate differentials as Britain looks set to outpace the U.S. and Europe on rate rises this year.The Federal Reserve paused its tightening cycle in June and although it looks likely to resume rate increases this month, it appears closer to the point where it will take stock of past rate increases as inflation shows signs of slowing.In contrast, the Bank of England this month raised the bank rate by half a percentage point and markets are pricing another 150 basis points of tightening by the middle of next year as inflation remains sticky. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2782(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2812(June 20nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2697(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2647(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday ahead of U.S. employment figures that could confirm rates are likely to stay higher for longer. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due later on. Expectations are for the U.S. economy to have created 225,000 jobs in June.The release follows data on Thursday that showed private payrolls surged last month, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased only moderately last week, suggesting the jobs market is on solid ground. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8967(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9049 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8927(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8897(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Friday as Japanese yen got lift from Japanese wage data. Data from the Japanese labour ministry showed regular wages posted their largest annual increase in May since early 1995, reinforcing the view among investors that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will have to modify its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner rather than later. The dollar was last down 0.7% against the yen at 143.04, having fallen by nearly 0.9% this week, marking its biggest weekly fall against the Japanese currency in two months .Strong resistance can be seen at 144.22(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.14(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.00(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.82(June 22nd low)
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Friday, following sharp losses in the previous session after U.S. data showed a still strong labour market, while investors awaited a key U.S. jobs report due later in the day for more clues on the interest rate outlook.
At (GMT 12:19 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Friday but were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss as strong U.S. jobs data strengthened bets for higher-for-longer interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 0.3% to $1,915.79 per ounce by 0902 GMT, with analysts attributing the small uptick to bargain hunting. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,921.80.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for their second straight weekly gain, as resilient demand resulted in a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. oil stockpiles, offsetting fears of higher U.S. interest rates.
Brent crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $76.88 a barrel at 1114 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.15 a barrel.