Posted at 06 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jun ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 497K, 228Kforecast, 278K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,720K,1,745K forecast, 1,742K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 253.25K,256.64Kforecast,257.50K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 248K, 245K forecast,239K previous
•US May Trade Balance -69.00B ,-69.00B,-69.00B forecast,-74.60B previous
•Canada May Trade Balance -3.44B, 1.15B forecast,1.94B previous
•US Jun Services PMI 54.4, 54.1 forecast,54.9 previous
•US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 53.1,49.9 forecast,49.2 previous
•US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 59.2 ,51.9 forecast,51.5 previous
•US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.5,55.9 forecast,52.9 previous
•US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 54.1, 53.3 forecast,56.2 previous
•US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9,51.0 forecast,50.3 previous
•US May JOLTs Job Openings 9.824M ,9.935M forecast,10.103M previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -1.508M, -0.983M forecast,-9.603M previous
• US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories-0.400M,-0.307M forecast,1.209M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan May Household Spending (YoY) -2.4% forecast, -4.4% previous
•23:30 Japan May Household Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-1.3% previous
•05:00 Japan May Leading Index (MoM) 0.0% previous
•05:00 Japan May Coincident Indicator (MoM) 0.1% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index 97.1 forecast, 96.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthen on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month.Private payrolls surged in June in the biggest rise since February 2022, an ADP National Employment report showed, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, the Labor Department said.Later, a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the U.S. services sector grew faster than expected in June as new orders picked up, adding to data indicating a resilient economy in the face of tighter monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0890(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0898(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0830(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened towards 14-month high against dollar on Thursday, after a survey from the Bank of England (BoE) showed British companies' expectations for selling price inflation had cooled.The BoE's Decision Maker Panel showed expectations for output price inflation in the coming year fell to 5.3% in the three months to June, compared to 5.4% in the three months to May the lowest reading since March 2022. The BoE is watching economic indicators closely as it considers how many more rate hikes are needed to control inflation.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2782(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2812(June 20nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2697(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2647(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as Wall Street stocks fell and data showed Canada’s trade balance swinging to a surprise deficit. Canada recorded a trade deficit of C$3.44 billion in May as energy and grains dragged down exports and unwrought precious metals and motor vehicles contributed to a surge in imports. Analysts had forecast a C$1.15 billion surplus.The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3358 to the greenback, or 74.86 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since June 13 at 1.3369. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3389 (50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3435 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3334 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3218(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as concerns about the global growth outlook, resulting from the aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks, weighed on risk appetite. On the data front, U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in June, indicating strength in the labour market despite growing risks of a recession from higher interest rates. Investors now see a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July after last month’s pause, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.Focus still remains on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for more clarity on the Fed rate-hike path.Strong resistance can be seen at 144.42(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.60(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.60(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares slumped to their lowest level in three months on Thursday, as heightened concerns about further interest rate hikes globally dented risk sentiment, while shares of Embracer group slid after a discounted share issue.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 2.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 2.57 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 3.13 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes ended sharply lower on Thursday in a broad sell-off after data showing a strong labor market boosted bond yields and fanned fears the Federal Reserve will be aggressive in raising U.S. interest rates.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.07% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.79 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.82% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday after data on the labor market further fueled expectations the Federal Reserve will be aggressive in raising interest rates as it tries to rein in persistently high inflation down towards its 2% target rate.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 9.4 basis points to 4.039% after hitting 4.083%, its highest since March 2. The 10-year yield is on track for its third straight session of gains
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped to a near one-week low on Thursday after a better-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report fuelled expectations for more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, lifting Treasury yields higher.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,910.15 per ounce by 2:08 p.m. EDT (1808 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% lower at $1,915.40.
Oil prices were near flat on Thursday as the market weighed tighter U.S. crude supplies with the higher likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike that could dent energy demand.
Brent crude futures settled 13 cents lower at $76.52 a barrel, after a 0.5% gain the previous day.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1 cent to $71.80 a barrel, after rising 2.9% in post-holiday trade on Wednesday to catch up with Brent's gains earlier in the week.