Posted at 06 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Jun IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 43.7 ,42.6 previous
•UK June Construction PMI 48.9 ,51.0 forecast, 51.6 previous
•EU May Retail Sales (YoY) -2.9% ,-2.7% forecast,-2.6% previous
•EU May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0% ,0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 US Jun ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 228K forecast, 278K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,745K forecast, 1,742K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 256.64K forecast,257.50K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 245K forecast,239K previous
•12:30 US Imports 323.60B previous
•12:30 US Exports 249.00B previous
•12:30 US May Trade Balance -69.00B forecast,-74.60B previous
•12:30 Canada May Trade Balance 1.15B forecast,1.94B previous
•12:30 Canada May Imports 62.91B previous
•12:30 Canada Exports May 64.85B previous
•13:45 US Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 53.0 forecast,54.3 previous
•13:45 US Jun Services PMI 54.1 forecast,54.9 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 49.9 forecast,49.2 previous
•14:00 Canada Jun Ivey PMI 53.5 previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 forecast,41.7 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 51.9 forecast,51.5 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.9 forecast,52.9 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 53.3 forecast,56.2 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.0 forecast,50.3 previous
•14:00 US May JOLTs Job Openings 9.935M forecast,10.103M previous
•14:00 Canada Jun Ivey PMI n.s.a 60.1 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 76B previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Production -0.004M forecast,0.298M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.983M forecast -9.603M previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories-0.307M forecast,1.209M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthen against dollar on Thursday after data showed German industrial orders rose more than expected . German industrial orders rose significantly more than expected in May due to large-scale orders of ships, spacecraft and military vehicles, but analysts said that beyond those exceptional purchases the sector remains under serious pressure. Incoming orders rose by 6.4% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on Thursday. A poll of analysts had pointed to a 1.2% increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0883(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0898(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0830(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened towards 14-month high against dollar on Thursday, after a survey from the Bank of England (BoE) showed British companies' expectations for selling price inflation had cooled.The BoE's Decision Maker Panel showed expectations for output price inflation in the coming year fell to 5.3% in the three months to June, compared to 5.4% in the three months to May the lowest reading since March 2022. The BoE is watching economic indicators closely as it considers how many more rate hikes are needed to control inflation. The pound was up 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2754 by 1023 GMT, marching towards a 14-month high it touched against the greenback last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2782(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2812(June 20nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2697(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2647(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday as the greenback eased even though the U.S. Federal Reserve's comments boosted expectations of a rate hike in July. The dollar last traded at 103.180 against a basket of global currencies, around 0.155% weaker, reversing earlier gains. FOMC June meeting minutes on Wednesday showed that nearly almost all Fed participants judged it appropriate to maintain the federal funds rate at the existing 5%-5.25%.Investors see an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point hike this month, with cuts expected in July, CME’s Fedwatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8967(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9049 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8927(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8897(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as investors awaited a raft of U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Investors will now focus on the U.S. Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and other economic data, as they keep a close watch on updates about China’s export controls on semiconductor metals and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s Beijing visit. The U.S. dollar index , which firmed 0.2% on Wednesday, slipped 0.3% to 103.03. The yen, meanwhile, rose more than 0.5% against the dollar to 143.83 .Strong resistance can be seen at 144.42(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.60(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.60(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares slumped on Thursday, as heightened concerns about an economic slowdown and further rate hikes globally dented risk sentiment, while shares of Embracer group slid after a discounted share issue.
At (GMT 12:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.46 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.48 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 2.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded in a tight range on Thursday as investors hunkered down for the U.S. jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.
Spot gold steadied at $1,917.69 per ounce by 1010 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,923.60.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as the market digested tighter crude supply alongside fears of global economic slowdown.
Brent crude futures edged up 12 cents to $76.77 a barrel by 1143 GMT after a 0.5% gain the previous day.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude firmed by 19 cents to $71.98 after rising by 2.9% in post-holiday trade on Wednesday.