Posted at 05 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French May Industrial Production (MoM) 1.2% ,-0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Spanish Jun Services PMI 53.4, 55.5 forecast, 56.7 previous
•Italian Jun Composite PMI 49.7, 52.0 previous
•Italian Jun Services PMI 52.2, 53.0 forecast, 54.0 previous
•French Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 47.2, 47.3 forecast, 51.2 previous
•French Jun Services PMI 48.0, 48.0 forecast, 52.5 previous
•German Jun Services PMI 54.1, 54.1 forecast, 57.2 previous
•EU Jun Services PMI 52.0, 52.4 forecast, 55.1 previous
•EU Jun S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9, 50.3 forecast, 52.8 previous
•UK June Composite PMI 52.8,52.8 forecast, 54.0 previous
•UK June Services PMI 53.7, 53.7 forecast, 55.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data( GMT )
• 14:00 US May Factory Orders (MoM) 0.8% forecast,0.4% previous
• 14:00 US May Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-0.2% previous
• 14:00 US May Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) -0.3% previous
• 14:00 US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 3.0% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 forecast,41.7 previous
•15:00 Canada June Leading Index (MoM) -0.08% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
•18:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as traders waited for minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting that could offer clues to the outlook for interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee is due to release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting later on Wednesday.Markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter-point in July and a near-20% chance of another 25-basis point increase in September. The euro was flat at $1.088, while sterling was down 0.1% at $1.2698. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0887(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0957 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0867(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832( (July 3rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Wednesday as traders considered whether the British currency will be hurt by several expected interest rate increases by the Bank of England (BoE) that could put more strain on the economy. The BoE raised interest rates by half a point in June to 5%, and markets expect it to deliver an identical increase when it meets on Aug. 3. The BoE is watching economic indicators closely as it considers how many more rate hikes are needed to control inflation. The pound edged 0.02% lower against the dollar at $1.2713 by 0840 GMT, 1.2% below the 14-month high it touched against the dollar last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2771(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2852(June 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2670(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2609(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as markets turned their focus to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and a key U.S. jobs report later in the week. Traders are now looking ahead to the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting later on Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Markets are almost certain that the Fed will hike in July after pausing last month. Economists polled expect the United States added 225,000 jobs last month, slowing from 339,000 job gains in the prior month, and average earnings likely held steady at a monthly 0.3% growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9006(30DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9025 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8948(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8900(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Wednesday as market awaited minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's June meeting. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for June. The report will give hints on the Fed's future interest rate plans and policymakers are expecting at least two additional hikes by year-end as inflation remains sticky, they added. The U.S. dollar drifted near the middle of its range of the past three weeks against major peers, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 102.99, after tracking between 103.75 and 102.75 since early June. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.05(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.23(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.73(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as fresh data pointing to China's faltering economic recovery as well as slowing services sector activity in the euro zone stoked concerns about a sharp hit to global growth.
At (GMT 12:16 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.65 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were rangebound on Wednesday in cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting minutes due later in the day.
Spot gold little changed at $1,927.39 per ounce by 1104 GMT, trading in a $8 range, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% to $1,934.70.
Oil benchmark Brent edged lower on Wednesday as concern over a global economic slowdown overshadowed supply cuts announced this week by top crude exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Brent crude was down 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $76.09 a barrel by 1045 GMT after falling more than $1 earlier in the session. The benchmark closed with a $1.60 gain on Tuesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $71.22, up $1.43, or 2.05%, from Monday's close