Posted at 04 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German May Imports (MoM) 1.7%, 3.1% forecast, -1.7% previous
•German May Exports (MoM)-0.1%,0.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
•German May Trade Balance 14.4B,17.5B forecast, 18.4B previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change -50.3K ,-63.5K forecast,-49.3K previous
•Italian Public Deficit (Q1) 12.1%,10.9% forecast, 5.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Jun Manufacturing PMI 49.6 forecast, 49.0 previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -1.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday as a lack of fresh economic data from the region and uncertainty over the direction of global interest rates caused investors to be cautious. Top central bankers have maintained their focus on bringing inflation back to their target levels, even in the face of slowing growth in the U.S. and the euro zone, adding to uncertainty about future global monetary policy steps.The euro was down 0.15% against the dollar at $1.089. U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0916(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0957 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0867(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832( (July 3rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Tuesday as traders waited for service sector data due on Wednesday and pondered whether any positive impact from expected higher interest rates on the British currency has run its course. Amid fears that more expected rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) could slow the British economy further, traders are awaiting PMI service data due on Wednesday to gauge business sentiment. The BoE is watching economic indicators closely as it judges how many more interest rate hikes are needed to control Britain's rate of inflation.In trading thinned by a bank holiday in the U.S., sterling edged 0.08% higher against the dollar at $1.2716 by 11:30 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2771(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2852(June 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2670(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2609(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited more clues on whether central banks will continue their aggressive interest rate hikes. Investors will watch for minutes of the June 13-14 FOMC meeting being released on Wednesday.Investors see an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, bringing rates into the 5.25%-5.50% range before cuts are seen after March in 2024. Market conditions were subdued heading into the U.S. Independence Day public holiday on Tuesday, with most of Wall Street closed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9039 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8928(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8885(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell slightly against the yen on Tuesday as markets remained on high alert for signs of Japanese intervention, but the broader market was placid with U.S. traders off for a public holiday. Market activity was relatively subdued with U.S. markets closed for the July 4 public holiday. Investors were also waiting for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls employment report which could influence the Federal Reserve's next decision.The greenback was down 0.18% at 1104 GMT to 144.44 yen , after rising 0.27% on Monday. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.75(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.17(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.51(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares were rangebound in thin trading on Tuesday, with a lack of fresh economic data from the region and uncertainty around the direction of global interest rates keeping investors cautious.
At (GMT 12:26 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Tuesday as some traders bet that recent weak U.S. economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate hike trajectory, while also positioning for further cues from the minutes of the central bank’s last meeting.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,929.54 per ounce by 0954 GMT, with trading volume likely thinned by a U.S. holiday.U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $1,937.20.
Oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against a weak global economic outlook.
Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 1.3%, to $75.64 a barrel at 1102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.74 a barrel, up 95 cents, or 1.4%.