Posted at 04 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.697% ,3.623% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.439%, 3.431% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.584%, 3.551% previous
•US Jun Manufacturing PMI 46.3, 46.3 forecast,48.4 previous
•US Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.1, 50.8 forecast,51.4 previous
•US Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 45.6, 44.0 forecast,42.6 previous
•US Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.0, 47.2 forecast, 46.9 previous
•US Jun ISM Manufacturing Prices 41.8,44.0 forecast,44.2 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.260% 5.180% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.230%, 5.215% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 04:30 Australia JulRBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast, 4.10% previous
Looking ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded after earlier weakening on data showing a slowdown in factory activity in China and the euro zone renewed concerns about economic growth. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy have weighed on the euro after rising for three consecutive quarters.A private sector survey on Monday showed China's factory activity growth slowed in June, with sentiment waning and recruitment cooling as firms grew increasingly concerned about sluggish market conditions. Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted faster than initially thought in June as persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank squeezed finances. The euro was last up 0.01% to $1.0911.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0933(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Monday as the U.S. currency rebounded from a tumble late the previous week, while traders continued to grapple with what expectations of several more Bank of England rate hikes mean for the British currency. Sterling was last down 0.18% at $1.2669, giving back some its 0.63% Friday gain after U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected, and sent the greenback lower across the board. Sterling ranked among the best performing currencies against the dollar in the first half of the year, gaining 4.8%, thanks to anticipation British interest rates would rise by more than many originally expected and stay higher for longer.But analysts are now starting to wonder whether the positive impact of higher rates for the British currency has run its course. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2744(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2615(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against the greenback on Monday markets awaited more U.S. economic data to gauge the outlook for interest rates U.S. manufacturing slumped further in June to levels last seen when the economy was reeling from the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a survey on Monday that also showed price pressures at the factory gate deflating. However, U.S. construction spending rose more than expected in May as a severe shortage of houses boosted single-family homebuilding Key U.S. data this week include the June payrolls report. Median forecasts are for the unemployment rate to fall slightly to 3.6%, while jobs are seen up 225,000 after May's surprisingly strong 339,000 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3257 (21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.33260(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3208 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3117(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained against a yen on Monday under intervention watch after the Japanese finance minister warned last week of excessive moves in the currency market. The yen fell to near eight-month lows against the dollar as intervention came into sight after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Friday against investors selling the yen too far as it weakened past the threshold of 145 to the dollar.Japan bought yen in September, its first foray in the market to boost its currency since 1998, after a Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision to maintain ultra-loose policy drove the yen as low as 145 per dollar. The Japanese yen weakened 0.25% versus the greenback to 144.68 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.90(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares erased gains by the closing bell to finish lower on Monday as AstraZeneca led falls among healthcare stocks that outweighed gains by Generali and among miners buoyed by hopes of more policy stimulus from China.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 18 percent.
Wall Street stock indexes ended Monday's shorter session up slightly along with U.S. Treasury yields, as investors weighed up a mixed bag of economic data ahead.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.03 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.12 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.21 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly in light trading on Monday, reversing course after briefly losing ground following economic data that showed the manufacturing sector continues to slump.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 2.2 basis points to 3.876%.The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 5.7 basis points at 4.934%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Monday, as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreated on weaker economic readings, casting doubts over whether the Federal Reserve may stick to its hawkish policy outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,920.49 per ounce by 1:54 p.m. EDT (1754 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $1,929.50.
Oil prices settled down on Monday after rallying earlier in the day as worries about a slowing global economy and possible U.S. interest-rate hikes outweighed supply cuts announced for August by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia.
U.S. crude settled down 1.2% at $69.79 per barrel and Brent fell 1.01% to $74.65.