Posted at 03 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Sweden Jun Manufacturing PMI 44.8, 45.0 forecast, 40.6 previous
•Swiss Jun CPI (YoY) 1.7%, 1.8% forecast,2.2% previous
•French Government Budget Balance -107.2B, -83.7B previous
•Spanish Jun Manufacturing PMI 48.0, 47.7 forecast, 48.4 previous
•Italian Jun Manufacturing PMI 43.8, 45.3 forecast, 45.9 previous
•French Jun Manufacturing PMI 46.0, 45.5 forecast,45.7 previous
•German Jun Manufacturing PMI 40.6, 41.0 forecast, 43.2 previous
•Greek Jun Manufacturing PMI 43.4, 43.6 forecast, 44.8 previous
•UK Jun Manufacturing PMI 46.5,46.2 forecast, 47.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.623% previous
• 12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.431% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.551% previous
•13:45 US Jun Manufacturing PMI 46.3 forecast,48.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment 50.8 forecast,51.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 44.0 forecast,42.6 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.2 forecast, 46.9 previous
•14:00 US Jun ISM Manufacturing Prices 44.0 forecast,44.2 previous
•14:00 US May Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast,1.2% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.180% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.215% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday after data showed Euro zone factory downturn deepened in June. Fresh reports on Monday painted a dour picture of the euro zone economy, with a survey showing manufacturing activity in the region contracted faster than initially thought in June, as persistent policy tightening by the European Central Bank squeezed finances. Italy's manufacturing sector contracted in June at the steepest rate in over three years, a separate report showed on Monday while France's manufacturing sector continued contracting, though the decline was slower than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0916(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Monday as the U.S. currency rebounded from a tumble late the previous week, while traders continued to grapple with what expectations of several more Bank of England rate hikes mean for the British currency. Sterling was last down 0.18% at $1.2669, giving back some its 0.63% Friday gain after U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected, and sent the greenback lower across the board. Sterling ranked among the best performing currencies against the dollar in the first half of the year, gaining 4.8%, thanks to anticipation British interest rates would rise by more than many originally expected and stay higher for longer.But analysts are now starting to wonder whether the positive impact of higher rates for the British currency has run its course. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2744(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2615(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday as greenback strengthened on expectation of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Investors see an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in July, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, pricing in another 25 bps rate hike in November, bringing rates into the 5.5%-5.75% range before cuts are seen in 2024.Investors will also watch for minutes of the June 13-14 FOMC meeting being released on July 5.The central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged in its June meeting but hinted that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as half of a percentage point by the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9039 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8928(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8885(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Monday as prospects of hawkish Fed rate-hike path boosted dollar. The yen weakened 0.35% to 144.82, after on Friday touching its lowest level against the greenback since November. It lost 9% against the dollar in the first six months of the year. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday Japan would take appropriate steps in response to excessive yen weakening, in the latest comment from government ministers and officials. On the data front, Japan’s business sentiment improved in the second quarter, but factory activity contracted in June. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.90(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Monday, boosted by gains in Italy's biggest insurer Generali after investor Delfin received a regulatory nod for a stake increase, while hopes of more policy stimulus from China also lifted sentiment.
At (GMT 12:26 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Monday as a stronger dollar dented the metal’s appeal, with investors awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data and minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting due later this week for clues on U.S. monetary policy.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,912.63 per ounce by 1113 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,920.60. Bullion lost 2.5% in the April to June quarter.
Oil rose on Monday after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts for August, overshadowing concern over a global economic slowdown and the potential for further increases to U.S. interest rates.
Brent crude futures were up 0.9%, or 70 cents, at $76.11 a barrel by 1210 GMT, having gained 0.8% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1%, or 80 cents, to $71.44 after a 1.1% gain in the previous session.