Posted at 01 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US May Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% , 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US May PCE Price index (YoY) 3.8%,4.6% forecast, 4.4% previous
•US May Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US May Personal Spending (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US May PCE price index (MoM ) 0.1%,0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•US May Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US May Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.6%,4.7% forecast, 4.7% previous
•Canada Apr GDP (MoM) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Jun Chicago 41.5,44.0 forecast, 40.4 previous
•US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 64.4,63.9 forecast, 59.2 previous
•US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.3% ,3.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 61.5, 61.3 forecast, 55.4 previous
•US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 69.0,68.0 forecast, 64.9 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 545, 546 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 674,682 previous
Looking Ahead Economic data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as recent economic data suggested central banks’ tightening cycle might end later than expected.The bloc’s data, which showed only a small drop in underlying inflation, was unlikely to sway the European Central Bank (ECB), which has pencilled in a ninth consecutive rate hike for July and is eyeing one in September too. December 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forwards rose to 3.9%, implying market expectations for a depo rate of around 4% by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0931(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday and was on track for a monthly gain of about 1.5%, boosted by a sharp rise in British bond yields across the month.Yields have jumped in June as data has shown that Britain’s inflation problem is more deeply entrenched than elsewhere, pushing the Bank of England to hike interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points last week. Sterling was last up at $1.2691, and was set for a monthly gain of 1.49%. Sterling is up 4.4% against the dollar this year but plenty of analysts have started to question whether those gains can continue if high interest rates start to weigh on growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2744(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2615(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after data showed Canada's economy gathered pace in May. Canada's economy regained momentum in May after stalling in April, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, leaving the door open for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in July.The economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, in what economists said was the fallout from a federal civil servant strike in April. There was likely a 0.4% jump in real gross domestic product in May, Statscan said.Analysts polled had forecast a 0.2% month-over-month rise in April .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3275 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3303 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3209 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3186(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the Japanese yen on Friday after economic data showed a cooling in consumer spending, raising some doubt about the potential aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve in fighting inflation. The Commerce Department said consumer spending ticked up 0.1% in May while data for the prior month was revised to show spending accelerated by 0.6% versus the previously reported 0.8%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained 0.1% for the month after an 0.4% rise in April while advancing 3.8% on an annual basis, slowing from a revised 4.3% the prior month. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.35% and was on track to snap a three-day run of weakening against the greenback at 144.26. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.39(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.68(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday as lacklustre data on China's factory activity spurred hopes of more policy stimulus, but ended the quarter on a sombre note as worries about further monetary policy tightening and weak Chinese demand capped gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.80 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.26 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.19 percent.
Wall Street's three major indexes advanced solidly on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq boasting its biggest first-half gain in 40 years as inflation showed signs of cooling while Apple closed with a $3 trillion market valuation for the first time. Dow Jones closed up by 0.84% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.23% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.45% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields slid on Friday after U.S. consumer spending slowed more than expected in May, though futures still predict the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates next month to quell persistent inflation.
The two-year Treasury yield, which generally reflects interest rate expectations, rose 0.1 basis points at 4.879%, while the benchmark 10-year note's yield down 4.1 basis points to 3.813%.
Commodities Recap
Gold was bound for its first quarterly decline in three, squeezed by expectations for more U.S. interest rate hikes, while moderate inflation prints provided some support on Friday.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,917.94 per ounce by 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $1,929.40.
Oil prices settled higher on Friday but posted their fourth straight quarterly loss as investors worried that sluggish global economic activity could crimp fuel demand.
Benchmark Brent crude futures for August delivery which expires on Friday, settled up 56 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.90. In the three months to the end of June, the contract finished down 6%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up 78 cents, or 1.1% at $70.64 a barrel.