Posted at 30 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%, 0.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•German May Import Price Index (MoM) -1.4%, -1.4% forecast,-1.7% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•UK Current Account (Q1) -10.8B, -8.5B forecast, -2.5B previous
•UK Nationwide Jun HPI (MoM )0.1%, -0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK Nationwide Jun Nationwide HPI (YoY) -3.5%, -4.0% forecast,-3.4% previous
•Swiss May Retail Sales (YoY) -1.1%,-2.5% forecast, -3.7% previous
•French Jun CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French May Consumer Spending (MoM )0.5%, 0.5% forecast, -1.0% previous
•German Jun Unemployment 2.610M, 2.588M forecast, 2.573M previous
•German Jun German Unemployment Change 28K,13K orecast,9K previous
• EU Jun CPI (YoY) 5.5%, 5.6% forecast, 6.1% previous
•EU Jun HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.8%, 6.6% forecast, 6.9% previous
• EU May Unemployment Rate 6.5%, 6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) 5.4%, 5.5% forecast,5.3%
• EU Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Ecponomic data(GMT)
•12:30 US May Personal Income (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US May PCE Price index (YoY) 4.6% forecast, 4.4% previous
•12:30 US May Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 US May Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
•12:30 US May PCE price index (MoM )0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.7% forecast, 4.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr GDP (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:45 US Jun Chicago 44.0 forecast, 40.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.9 forecast, 59.2 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 61.3 forecast, 55.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 68.0 forecast, 64.9 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 546 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 682 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as recent economic data suggested central banks’ tightening cycle might end later than expected.The bloc’s data, which showed only a small drop in underlying inflation, was unlikely to sway the European Central Bank (ECB), which has pencilled in a ninth consecutive rate hike for July and is eyeing one in September too. December 2023 ECB euro short-term rate (ESTR) forwards rose to 3.9%, implying market expectations for a depo rate of around 4% by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0941(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday and was on track for a monthly gain of about 1.5%, boosted by a sharp rise in British bond yields across the month.Yields have jumped in June as data has shown that Britain’s inflation problem is more deeply entrenched than elsewhere, pushing the Bank of England to hike interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points last week. Sterling was last up 0.12% at $1.263, and was set for a monthly gain of 1.49%. Sterling is up 4.4% against the dollar this year but plenty of analysts have started to question whether those gains can continue if high interest rates start to weigh on growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2744(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2615(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as dollar was strong more broadly ahead of U.S. inflation data. The day's main event for FX markets is the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index, which will be released at 0830 EDT (1230 GMT) and will give the latest indicator of whether prices are slowing in the world's largest economy.Thursday data showing the resilience of the U.S. economy suggested the Federal Reserve has a cushion to raise interest rates further if inflation data requires it, and U.S. benchmark 10 year yields rose 14 basis points on Thursday as a result, their most since late March.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9039 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8928(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8885(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the Japanese yen on Friday as traders awaited key U.S. inflation numbers due later in the day after a slew of strong data prints and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials raised bets of more rate hikes. U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - a key inflation gauge for the Fed - will be released later in the session, with analysts expecting a favourable 0.3% month-on-month increase. They said anything smaller might challenge the Fed’s commitment to its current hawkish stance. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.39(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.68(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday as lacklustre data on China's factory activity spurred hopes of more policy stimulus, while investors awaited key inflation readings for more clues on the direction of global interest rates.
At (GMT 12:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.148 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices are set for their first quarterly decline in three on Friday as expectations of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its global peers dimmed the outlook for bullion.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,905.13 per ounce by 1014 GMT, down 3.2% for the quarter ending June 30. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $1,912.70.
Oil prices declined towards $74 a barrel on Friday and were on course for a fourth consecutive quarter of losses amid concerns over sluggish global economic activity and fuel demand.
Benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery were down 5 cents, or 0.1%, at $74.46 a barrel by 1120 GMT after earlier rising by over 1%. The less-traded front-month contract , which expires on Friday, was up 16 cents at $74.50.