Posted at 30 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q1) 4.2%,1.0% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q1) 4.2%, 3.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q1) 4.1%,4.2%forecast, 3.7% previous
•US PCE Core PCE Prices (Q1) 4.90%,5.00% forecast, 4.40% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.0%,1.4%forecast, 2.6% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 4.1%, 4.2% forecast, 3.9% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1) -5.9%,-6.8% forecast, -2.7% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 239K,266K forecast, 264K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 257.50K, 251.27K forecast, 255.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,742K, 1,765K forecast, 1,759K previous
•US May Pending Home Sales (MoM) -2.7% ,- 0.5% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US May Pending Home Sales Index 76.5, 78.9 previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet 8,341B, 8,362B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 China June Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 forecast, 54.5 previous
•01:00 Australia May Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•01:00 China June Manufacturing PMI 49.0 forecast, 48.8 previous
•01:00 China June May Housing Credit 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday after economic data showed the labor market remained on a solid footing, giving the Federal Reserve a possible cushion to continue raising interest rates. Weekly initial jobless claims decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000, the largest drop in 20 months and below the expectation of 265,000 by economists polled. In addition, the Commerce Department revised its first-quarter gross domestic product estimate to 2%, up from the 1.3% reported in May and above the 1.4% previous estimate. The dollar index rose 0.35% at 103.310 after climbing to 103.44, its highest level since June 13. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0901(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0947 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0858(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0780( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against dollar on Thursday as robust US economic data helped ease recession fears but increased the odds of the Fed keeping its restrictive policy in place for longer than expected. A surprise drop in initial jobless claims and a sharp upward revision in first-quarter GDP underscored U.S. economic resilience and further cemented the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates at least once, and maybe twice more, this year. The pound on Wednesday dropped 0.88% against the dollar, its biggest daily fall since mid-May . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2644(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2738(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2577(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2459(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday ahead of data that could help guide expectations for the Bank of Canada, with the currency recovering from a two-week low it hit as the greenback notched broad-based gains. Canadian GDP data for April, due on Friday, is expected to show the economy growing by 0.2%. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations are also set for release on Friday. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3240 to the greenback, or 75.53 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since June 15 at 1.3285. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3274(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3354(June 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3221 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3160 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar touched a more than seven-month high against the Japanese yen on Thursday after their respective central banks reaffirmed divergent policy plans. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking on a panel with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday noted that two rate rises were likely this year, and did not rule out the possibility of a hike in July. By contrast, Ueda reiterated that there's still some distance to go in sustainably achieving 2% inflation accompanied by sufficient wage growth, the conditions the BOJ has set for considering an exit from ultra-easy stimulus. The yen weakened 0.23% versus the greenback to 144.83 per dollar. Investors are watching to see if the BOJ will intervene in the currency again, which last happened at around the 145 mark. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.85(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher as better-than-expected U.S. data, as well as signs of cooling inflation in Spain, helped calm jitters over a global economic slowdown and hawkish signals from world bank leaders.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.36 percent.
The Dow and the S&P 500 advanced on Thursday as bank shares rallied after major lenders cleared the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, while strong economic data stoked expectations of further interest rate hikes from the central bank.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.45% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.02% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rose to three-month highs on Thursday after U.S. data solidified the picture of an economy and job market defying predictions of recession a day after the U.S. central bank chief reiterated that there is little room yet to let up on monetary tightening.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 14.2 basis points to 3.854%. It hit the highest since March 10 and at the 3.868% high it looked on track for the biggest points gain since September.
Commodities Recap
Gold regained some ground on Thursday as traders took advantage of a brief dip below the key psychological $1,900 level that was driven by a volley of robust U.S. economic readings.
Spot gold edged up 0.1% at $1,908.4 per ounce by 1:52 p.m. EDT (1752 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower at $1,917.90.
Oil prices settled higher on Thursday after flip flopping during the session, supported by a bigger draw than expected in U.S. crude inventories but pressured by fears that rising interest rates could dent global economic growth.
Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $69.86 a barrel.