Posted at 29 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jun CPI (YoY) 6.2% , 5.7% previous
•Spanish Jun HICP (YoY) 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 2.9% previous
•Sweden Interest Rate Decision 3.75%,3.75% forecast, 3.50% previous
•German Jun CPI (MoM) 0.2%, -0.1% previous
•German Jun CPI (YoY) 6.7%, 6.3% previous
• German Jun CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.1% previous
•EU Jun Industrial Sentiment -7.2,-5.5 forecast, -5.2 previous
• EU Jun Services Sentiment 5.7, 5.5 forecast, 7.0 previous
• EU Jun Business and Consumer Survey 95.3, 96.0 forecast, 96.5 previous
•German June CPI (YoY) 6.8%, 6.5% previous
Looking ahead Economic Calendar(GMT)
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q1) 1.0% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q1) 3.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q1) 4.2% forecast, 3.7% previous
•12:30 US PCE Core PCE Prices (Q1) 5.00% forecast, 4.40% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 1.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 4.2% forecast, 3.9% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1) -6.8% forecast, -2.7% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 266K forecast, 264K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 251.27K forecast, 255.75K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,765K forecast, 1,759K previous
•14:00 US May Pending Home Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•14:00 US May Pending Home Sales Index 78.9 previous
•14:00 US May Natural Gas Storage 83B forecast, 95B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.010% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.140% previous
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 8,362B previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday after mixed inflation data from German states and Spain ahead of tomorrow's euro area wide figure. Consumer prices in North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, rose 6.2% on an annual basis in June, up from 5.7% in May, and a similar pattern was observed in other states. Meanwhile, Spain's 12-month inflation fell to 1.9%, the lowest since March 2021 but above the 1.7% expected by economists polled. Investors are now awaiting consumer prices data from Germany later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0941(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was struggled for direction on Thursday to recover from a sharp tumble the day before, its biggest daily drop in seven weeks, as markets turned nervous about the impact of rate hikes on the British economy. Investors are now starting to worry that further rate hikes in Britain in a bid to curtail entrenched inflation are bad news for the economy and also the pound.The pound was broadly steady against the dollar at $1.2638 by 0928 GMT, and also flat against the euro, which was worth 86.35 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2744(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2615(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Thursday as traders' attention continued to swing between the battle to lower inflation and speculation about currency market intervention in China and Japan. The dollar made its strongest gains since early June after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday alluded to further interest rate hikes to tackle inflation when the Fed meets in July and September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8980(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9039 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8928(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8885(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar touched a more than seven-month high against the Japanese yen on Thursday after their respective central banks reaffirmed divergent policy plans. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking on a panel with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday noted that two rate rises were likely this year, and did not rule out the possibility of a hike in July. By contrast, Ueda reiterated that there's still some distance to go in sustainably achieving 2% inflation accompanied by sufficient wage growth, the conditions the BOJ has set for considering an exit from ultra-easy stimulus. The dollar was last down 0.2% at 144.22. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.39(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.68(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Thursday as hawkish signals from a slew of major central bankers offset a boost from H&M, after the Swedish retailer posted a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit.
At (GMT 12:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.62 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday, trading near a key support level of $1,900 as global central bankers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirm their hawkish policy messages.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,904.79 per ounce by 0950 GMT, lingering near its lowest since mid-March. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,913.00.
Oil prices steadied on Thursday, a day after rising sharply on a bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. inventories, as attention shifted back to rising interest rates denting global economic growth.
Brent crude futures was up 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $74.13 a barrel by 1032 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $69.67 a barrel.