Posted at 28 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1%,-0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US May Goods Trade Balance -91.13B ,-92.90B forecast,-96.77B previous
•US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0%, -0.2% previous
•US Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.529M ,-0.034M forecast,-0.380M previous
•US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.124M , 0.782M forecast,0.433M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.209M , 0.089M forecast,-0.098M previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories -9.603M ,1.415M forecast,-3.831M previous
•US Gasoline Production 0.298M, 0.024M forecast,-0.352M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Release(GMT)
•23:30 US Japan May Retail Sales (YoY) 5.4% forecast, 5.0% previous
•23:30 US Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-1.2% previous
•23:30 US Foreign Bonds Buying 1,056.2B previous
•01:00 New Zealand Jun ANZ Business Confidence -28.1 forecast,-31.1 previous
•01:00 New Zealand Jun NBNZ Own Activity -6.0% forecast,-4.5% previous
•01:30 Australia May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Release(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Wednesday following comments from a host of global central bank leaders, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike by the Fed at its next meeting in July. In addition, Powell also said he does not see inflation coming down to the Fed's 2% target until 2025.Expectations for a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting moved up to 81.8 from 76.9% a day earlier, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.The euro was down 0.35% to $1.0921. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0959(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated on Wednesday, as traders took profit on sterling's robust rally this month and after upbeat U.S. data gave investors an excuse to buy dollars.Some caution was expected to stem from the European Central Bank's annual forum in the Portuguese town of Sintra at which many of the world's most influential central bankers are to speak. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a panel discussion later, together with ECB President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Sterling was last down 0.46% against the dollar at $1.2662. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2773(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2832 (June 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2655(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2644(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a near two-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the greenback notched broad-based gains and investors grew less certain that the Bank of Canada would hike interest rates further next month. Money markets see a 55% chance of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next policy decision on July 12, down from 64% before data on Tuesday that showed inflation easing to its slowest pace in two years.The loonie was trading 0.5% lower at 1.3250 to the greenback, after touching its weakest intraday level since June 15 at 1.3276 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3286(21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3307 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3181(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3118 (28th June low).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit fresh seven-month high on Wednesday as Japan hinted at intervention to prevent further losses. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Wednesday warned against further falls in the yen, saying authorities would take an appropriate response if moves became excessive.Markets are wary in case Japan intervenes to buy the yen as it did last October, which knocked the dollar down from 151.94 to as low as 144.50 in a matter of hours. Japan made forays into the currency market to prop up the yen last September and October to stem a plunge in the currency, which hit a 32-year low of 151.94 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.39(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.68(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Wednesday after robust U.S. data overnight soothed concerns about a steep economic slowdown, even as ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the central bank was still not seeing enough evidence of an inflation cool-down.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.98percent.
The Nasdaq managed a small gain on Wednesday with support from megacap stocks while the S&P 500 and the Dow closed lower after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled more rate hikes and said he did not see inflation falling to the central bank's target rate "this year or next year.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.22% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.04% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.27% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Wednesday fell to their lowest in nearly 4 months on bets for interest rates remaining higher for longer, while U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a hawkish stance.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,912.49 per ounce by 1:43 p.m. EDT (1743 GMT), after hitting its lowest since mid-March. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,922.20.
Oil prices climbed about 3% on Wednesday as the second straight weekly draw from U.S. crude stockpiles was bigger than expected, offsetting worries that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce global oil demand.
Brent futures rose $1.77, or 2.5%, to settle at $74.03 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.86, or 2.8%, to settle at $69.56, narrowing Brent's premium over WTI to its lowest since June 9.