Posted at 28 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Jul GfK Consumer Climate -25.4, -23.0 forecast, -24.2 previous
•Sweden May Household Lending Growth (YoY) 1.5, 1.7% forecast, 1.9% previous
•French Jun Consumer Confidence 85, 84 forecast, 83 previous
•Spanish May Retail Sales (YoY) 6.0%,0.6% forecast, 5.5% previous
•Swiss Jun ZEW Expectations -30.8,-32.3 forecast,-32.2 previous
•Italian Jun CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Irish May Retail Sales (YoY) 5.1%, 7.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•12:30 US May Goods Trade Balance -92.90B forecast,-96.77B previous
•12:30 US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.2% previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.034M forecast,-0.380M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.085M forecast, 0.433M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories 1.359M forecast,0.479M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.923M forecast,-1.493M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.089M forecast,-0.098M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.014M forecast,0.089M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.415M forecast,-3.831M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.024M forecast,-0.352M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Release(GMT)
•13:30 Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin
•13:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•13:30 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:30 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•15:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. economic reports made a strong case for rates being higher, yet traders awaited cues from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and more economic data for a path ahead on rate-hikes. Investors will keenly watch Thursday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data for May, first quarter GDP data, and weekly jobless claims for the week ended June 23. Core-PCE is forecast to stay unchanged at 0.4%.Fed Chair Powell will speak at a policy panel before the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Sintra at 1330 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0959(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated on Wednesday, as traders took profit on sterling's robust rally this month and after upbeat U.S. data gave investors an excuse to buy dollars.Some caution was expected to stem from the European Central Bank's annual forum in the Portuguese town of Sintra at which many of the world's most influential central bankers are to speak. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a panel discussion later, together with ECB President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Sterling was last down 0.46% against the dollar at $1.2662 and down 0.3% against the euro at 86.28 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2773(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2832 (June 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2655(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2644(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. economic data cemented expectations of more rate hikes this year. U.S. consumer confidence increased in June to the highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years amid renewed labor market optimism, while business spending appeared to hold up in May, indicating the economy remained on a solid footing despite fears of a recession.Investors’ focus has shifted to Powell’s speech at an afternoon policy panel before a European Central Bank Forum in Portugal. The U.S. central bank signaled this month that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as half a percentage point by the end of this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8980(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9039 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8928(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8885(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit fresh seven-month high on Wedneday as Japan hinted at intervention to prevent further losses. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Wednesday warned against further falls in the yen, saying authorities would take an appropriate response if moves became excessive.Markets are wary in case Japan intervenes to buy the yen as it did last October, which knocked the dollar down from 151.94 to as low as 144.50 in a matter of hours. Japan made forays into the currency market to prop up the yen last September and October to stem a plunge in the currency, which hit a 32-year low of 151.94 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.39(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.68(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.78(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.81(June 26th low)
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Wednesday after robust U.S. data soothed concerns about a steep economic slowdown, while investors awaited commentary from central bankers at a forum expected later in the day for further policy direction.
At (GMT 12:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.75 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil rallied on Wednesday after an industry report of a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested robust demand and helped offset worries over further interest rate hikes.
Brent crude was up 48 cents, or 0.7%, to $72.74 a barrel at 0928 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude gained 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.01.