Posted at 27 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden May PPI (MoM)-1.7%, -1.0% forecast, -1.0% previous
•Sweden May Trade Balance -0.30B,-1.50B forecast, -2.70B previous
•Italian Jun Business Confidence 100.3, 101.0 forecast,101.4 previous
•Italian Jun Consumer Confidence 108.6, 105.5 forecast,105.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:00 US Building Permits (MoM) 5.2% forecast,-1.4% previous
•12:00 US Building Permits 1.491M forecast,1.417M previous
•12:30 Canada May Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.9% forecast,4.2% previous
•12:30 Canada May CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Core May Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•12:30 US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.7% previous
•12:30 US May Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.0% forecast,1.4% previous
•12:30 US May Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -1.0% forecast,1.1% previous
•12:30 Canada May Median CPI (YoY) 3.8% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 Canada May CPI (YoY) 3.4% forecast,4.4% previous
•12:30 Canada May Core CPI (YoY) 3.9% forecast,4.1% previous
•12:30 Canada May Common CPI (YoY) 5.2% forecast,5.7% previous
•12:30 Canada May Core CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.9% previous
•13:00 US Apr S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.5% forecast,1.5% previous
•13:00 US Apr House Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•13:00 US Apr House Price Index (YoY) 3.1% forecast,3.6% previous
•13:00 US Apr House Price Index 402.1 forecast,398.0 previous
•13:00 US Apr S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:00 US Apr S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) -2.6% forecast,-1.1% previous
•14:00 US May New Home Sales 675K forecast,683K previous
•14:00 US Jun Richmond Services Index 7 forecast,-10 previous
•14:00 US Jun CB Consumer Confidence 104.0 forecast, 102.3 previous
•14:00 US May New Home Sales (MoM) 4.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun Richmond Manufacturing Index -10 forecast,-15 previous
•14:00 US Jun Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -13 previous
•14:00 US Jun CB Consumer Confidence 104.0 forecast,102.3 previous
•14:00 US May New Home Sales (MoM) 4.1% previous
•14:30 US Jun Texas Services Sector Outlook -17.3 previous
•14:30 US Jun Dallas Fed Services Revenues 6.0 forecast,6.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as comments from ECB policymakers at the European Central Bank's annual forum at Sintra in Portugal boosted euro. Latvian central bank governor and ECB official Martins Kazaks said in Portugal on Tuesday that the central bank will likely keep hiking interest rates after July.The euro zone's key interest rate currently stands at 3.5%. Kazaks' comments suggest they could go to 4% or higher.ECB President Christine Lagarde also spoke in Sintra on Tuesday, saying that policy needs to be decided meeting by meeting and has to remain data-dependent. The euro was last up 0.33% against the dollar at $1.094, after rising slightly on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound headed for its biggest daily gain against the dollar in two weeks on Tuesday, boosted by a modest return of risk appetite after an aborted mutiny by mercenaries in Russia at the weekend briefly threatened to upend markets.Investors are still trying to determine how Moscow will respond to the aborted uprising by the heavily armed Wagner Group over the weekend, bringing most of the focus back to the global economy and the outlook for interest rates, for now.Sterling was last up 0.14% against the dollar at , on course for its largest one-day rise since June 16. Against the euro , sterling was flat at 85.80 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2773(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2832 (June 22nd igh).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2695(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2644(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of further interest rate hikes. Investors awaited U.S. data to look forward to durable goods orders and building permits figures due later on Tuesday. Investors also await U.S. data including a key inflation gauge, durable goods and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index expected this week. The dollar index was 0.15% lower at 102.58, weighed down by the euro, which is its biggest component. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8947(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9031 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8913(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8892(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose to a seven-month high against the yen on Tuesday, with investors on the look-out for possible intervention by Japan to boost the ailing currency. The dollar rose almost 0.3% to 143.94 yen , its highest since Nov. 10, despite Japanese officials vowing to respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive.Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday We will closely watch currency market moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond appropriately if the moves become excessive. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.91(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.18(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.02(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares struggled to maintain positive momentum on Tuesday, after Asian stocks got a boost from China's government saying it would support the economy, as investors focused on concerns about the economic outlook for Europe and the United States.
At (GMT 11:19 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady with support from a softer dollar on Tuesday after the metal registered two sessions of gains, though investors remained cautious after recent hawkish comments from U.S. central bank officials indicating a need for higher interest rates.
Spot gold held its ground at $1,923.49 an ounce by 1014 GMT while U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,933.10.
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of data shedding light on U.S. appetite for fuel during the summer driving season, with the Brent benchmark's price structure indicating bulls are retreating.
By 0916 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at $73.77 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.95 a barrel, erasing some earlier gains.