Posted at 26 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jun Current Assessment 93.7, 93.5 forecast,94.8 previous
•German Jun Ifo Business Climate Index 88.5,90.7 forecast,91.7 previous
•German Jun Business Expectations 83.6,88.0 forecast,88.6 previous
Looking ahead Economic Dataa(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -1.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.3% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.499% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.387% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.605% previous
•14:30 US Jun Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -26.5 forecast,-29.1 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.130% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.170% previous
•17:00 US 2-Year Note Auction 4.300% previous
Looking ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•17:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•13:05 ECB McCaul Speaks
•14:25 SNB Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as as investors watched for potential ripple effects of the aborted weekend mutiny in Russia. A clash between Moscow and Russian mercenary group Wagner was averted on Saturday after the heavily armed mercenaries withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance on the capital.However, the challenge has raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power and some concern about possible disruption of Russian oil supply. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Monday as traders grappled with the implications of the previous week's outsized rate hike by the Bank of England. Monday's moves in sterling were in the shadow of the Bank of England's larger-than-expected 50 basis point interest rate hike, which pushed market pricing for the peak in the Britain's key interest rate over 6%, implying a further over 100 basis points of tightening.The pound rose 0.15% against the dollar to $1.2735, regaining some of its 0.83% loss from the week before, the currency's biggest weekly decline since mid May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2843(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2876 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2705(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2603(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Monday on lingering worries that the protracted monetary tightening cycles from major central banks would further hurt the global economic outlook.Dramatic weekend events in Russia also kept investors on guard, though reaction in the currency market was subdued as they assessed the implications of the aborted mutiny. Meanwhile, U.S. business activity fell to a three-month low in June and the contraction in the manufacturing sector deepened, though the overall picture indicated economic growth ticked up a notch in the second quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8947(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9031 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8913(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8892(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against Japanese yen on Monday as geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia drew some investors into the safe haven yen. Traders were also closely monitoring developments in Russia, after heavily armed Russian mercenaries withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that halted their rapid advance on Moscow but raised questions on Sunday about President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. The Japanese yen rose more than 0.2% to 143.39 per dollar, though was not far from an over seven-month low of 143.87 hit on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.64(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.30(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 141.73(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday, with defence stocks leading declines after an aborted mutiny in Russia over the weekend, while financial stocks dragged on mounting concerns of global interest rates staying higher for longer.
At (GMT 12:01` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.061.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed on Monday as geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia drew some investors into the safe haven metal, outweighing pressure from a hawkish interest rate outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,932.19 per ounce by 1116 GMT, while gold futures were up 0.7% to $1,942.30.
Oil prices firmed slightly on Monday, with political instability from an aborted revolt by Russian mercenaries over the weekend viewed by the market as not posing an immediate threat to oil supply from one of the world's largest producers.
Brent crude futures were up 38 cents, or 0.5%, at $74.23 a barrel by 1040 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.44. Both benchmarks gained as much as 1.3% in early Asian trade.