Posted at 22 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Jun Business Survey 101, 99 forecast, 99 previous
•UK BoE Jun Interest Rate Decision 5.00, 4.75% forecast, 4.50% previous
Looking ahead Economic data (GMT)
•12:30 US Current Account (Q1) -216.9B forecast, -206.8B previous
•12:30 US May Chicago Fed National Activity 0.00 forecast, 0.07 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 260K forecast, 262K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 242.01K forecast, 246.75K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,782K forecast, 1,775K previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Inventories 1.091M forecast, 2.108M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.873M forecast ,7.919M previous
•15:00 US Jun KC Fed Manufacturing Index -11 forecast , -2 previous
•15:00 US Jun KC Fed Composite Index -5 forecast , -1 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
•12:05 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro retreated against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited for U.S. jobless claims data that could give hints at future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve . Powell, in his remarks to lawmakers on Wednesday, said further rate increases are “a pretty good guess” of where the Fed is heading if the economy continues in its current direction. Powell’s comments did little to sway investors in futures markets tied to the Fed’s policy rate, which, on Wednesday, reflected bets for only one additional rate increase this year, followed by cuts in January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0950(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained but gave up ground after Bank of England raised rates to 5% in surprise move to tackle stubborn inflation. The Bank of England raised interest rates by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point on Thursday after it said there had been "significant" news suggesting British inflation would take longer to fall. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to raise its main interest rate to 5% from 4.5%, its highest since 2008 and its largest rate increase since February, following stickier inflation and wage growth since its policymakers met last in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2843(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2876 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2771(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2637(14DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hiked its benchmark interest rate. The SNB raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, defying some market expectations of a bigger increase. The Swiss franc fell 0.2% to 0.8945 against the dollar, moving away from a six-week high it touched last week. The euro rose by as much as 0.2% to 0.9828 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8947(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9001 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8900(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8876(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated U.S. rates had further room to rise on Wednesday . Last week, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at between 5% and 5.25%, but officials projected rates will have to increase another half percentage point by year's end to tame inflation.Powell in his remarks to lawmakers in Washington said the outlook for two further 25-basis-point (bps) rate increases are "a pretty good guess" of where the central bank is heading if the economy continues in its current direction. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.43(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.77(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.82(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 140.69(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares slid to their lowest level in nearly three months on Thursday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the fight to lower inflation still has a "long way" to go
At (GMT 12:01` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.98 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Thursday to hold close to a three-month low hit a day earlier after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that more interest rate hikes were likely to tame inflation.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $1,927.38 per ounce by 1040 GMT, a day after having hitting its lowest since March 17. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,937.60.
Oil futures fell on Thursday, with trader concern over bearish impact from interest rate hikes countered by potentially bullish U.S. oil inventory data after preliminary figures showed a fall in stocks.
Brent futures dropped by $1.69, or 2.2%, to $75.43 a barrel by 1109 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.3%, at $70.90.