Posted at 21 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK May Core PPI Output (MoM) -0.3% ,0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK May PPI Input (MoM) -1.5%, -0.5% forecast,-0.3% previous
•UK May Core PPI Output (YoY) 4.1%, 4.7% forecast,6.0% previous
•UK May CPI (YoY) 8.7%, 8.4% forecast ,8.7% previous
•UK May Core RPI (MoM) 0.7% ,0.7% forecast, 1.4% previous
• German May Car Registration (MoM) 21.7% forecast,-27.9% previous
• UK May CPI (MoM) 0.7%,0.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
• UK May Core RPI (YoY) 10.3%, 10.1% forecast, 10.4% previous
• UK May Core CPI (YoY) 7.1%, 6.8% forecast,6.8% previous
• UK May Core CPI MoM (MoM) 0.8%, 0.6% forecast, 1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-1.4% previous
• 12:30 Canada May New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•13:45 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•13:45 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•14:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
•14:00 US Fed Governor Jefferson Testifies
•14:00 US Fed Governor Cook Testifies
•15:00 EU German Buba Balz Speaks
•15:40 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•20:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday but gains were limited as investors awaited the testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could shape up expectations for more rate hikes ahead. . Investors also await U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony before lawmakers, where he will likely be questioned on whether rates will rise again in July and peak in a 5.5%-5.75% range as projected .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0973 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0904(June 20th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound seesawed on Wednesday, initially jumping after data showed UK inflation accelerated more than expected in May, then reversing gains, as concerns flared over the Bank of England’s ability to protect the economy from stagnating. Official data showed consumer inflation rose by 8.7% year on year in May, showing no change from April’s 8.7% rate, but above expectations for an increase of 8.4%.But the core rate, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 7.1%, above expectations for a reading of 6.8%,keeping the BoE under pressure to deliver a big rate rise when it meets later this week Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2849(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2715(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2716(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Wednesday leading into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's appearance before Congress, where he is expected to strike a hawkish tone, while sterling slipped after hotter-than-expected British inflation data. Powell delivers a semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the U.S. House Financial Affairs Committee at 1400 GMT, with the focus being on bringing down inflation to the Fed’s 2% target from 4% in May.Traders are now pricing in an about 77% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, with no rate cuts seen this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8987(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8990 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8930(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8906(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Wednesday after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy.Ueda's comments reiterated the BoJ's dovish stance as traders turned their focus to the Fed. Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said the chance of tweaking the bank's yield curve control policy at next month's rate review was small given diminishing market distortions and a lack of price trend data. The rally against the yen pushed the U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, up slightly to 102.60. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.48(23.6%fb).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.51(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.80(14DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Wednesday after the real estate sector led declines against rising euro zone bond yields, while data affirming stubborn inflation in Britain sent London stocks lower.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on the dollar’s uptick on Wednesday as investors watched for interest rate cues from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,932.86 per ounce, trading in an $8 range as of 0915 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also down 0.2% to $1,944.20.
Oil prices stabilised on Wednesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony later in the day and as data showing British inflation remained sticky raised the possibility of a hawkish Bank of England policy decision this week.
Brent futures slipped 10 cents, or 0.13%, to $75.80 a barrel by 1159 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged down 8 cents, or 0.11%, to $71.11.