Posted at 20 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German May PPI (MoM) -1.4%,-0.7% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German May German PPI (YoY) 1.0%, 1.7% forecast, 4.1% previous
• Swiss May Trade Balance 5.479B, 3.450B forecast, 2.601B previous
• EU Apr Current Account 4.0B, 27.3B forecast, 31.2B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US May Housing Starts 1.400M forecast, 1.401M previous
•12:30 US May Housing Starts (MoM) -0.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
•12:30 US May Building Permits (MoM) -1.4% previous
•12:30 US May Building Permits 1.425M forecast,1.147M previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -2.4% forecast, -0.9% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.150% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.155% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:45 ECB McCaul Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday on expectation ECB will further hike interest rate . The European Central Bank should err on the side of further interest rate hikes as inflation could come in even higher than it expects, two ECB policymakers said on Monday, even as the bank's chief economist opened the door to a pause. The ECB has raised rates by a combined four percentage points over the past year to stem a historic surge in inflation and said it would likely increase them again in July after its new forecasts put price growth above its 2% target through 2025.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0973 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0904(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded lower against the dollar on Tuesday, as money market traders awaited pivotal inflation data due on Wednesday, ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting this week . On Wednesday, official data for inflation in May will be published. Last month, Britain reported consumer prices eased to 8.7% in annual terms in April, down from 10.1% in March, with food and non-alcoholic drink price inflation in double digits at 19.1% in April from 19.2% the month before. The pound was $1.277 , down 0.14% against the dollar, while the euro rose 0.2% to 85.59 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2849(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2769(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2716(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony later this week. Markets were focusing on Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for further guidance on interest rates following the Fed’s hawkish pause on monetary policy tightening last week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six others, was little changed at 102.42. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8969(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8990 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8930(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8906(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against Japanese yen on Tuesday as traders positioned for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony later this week for more clues on the interest rate path. Markets now await Powell’s congressional testimonies due on Wednesday and Thursday for cues on future rates, following a ‘hawkish pause’ on monetary policy tightening. Traders are now pricing in an about 74% chance of Fed rate hike in July, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.23(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.48(23.6%fb).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.51(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.80(14DMA)
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Tuesday after China cut interest rates by less than expected and the market awaited more detail on Beijing's plans to shore up a stuttering economic recovery.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged up on Tuesday as the dollar eased but lacked clear momentum as traders positioned for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony later this week for more direction on the interest rate path.
Spot gold rose 0.15 % to $1,952.98 per ounce by 0926 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,964.10.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after China cut benchmark lending rates in a potential boost to growth but oil demand was seen rising less than expected this year, in a mixed picture for consumption by the world's largest crude importer.
Brent crude was up 69 cents, or 0.9%, at $76.78 a barrel at 1226 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for July was down 3 cents from Friday's close at $71.75. The July contract expires at the end of trade on Tuesday.