Posted at 16 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU May CPI (YoY) 6.1%, 6.1% forecast, 7.0% previous
•EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q1)5.00%,3.30% forecast, 5.70% previous
•EU May CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU May Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) 4.60%, 3.30% forecast, 5.10% previous
•EU May Core CPI (YoY) 5.3%, 5.3% forecast, 5.6% previous
•EU May CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Jun Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast ,3.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.4% forecast , 4.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 56.5 forecast ,55.4 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 60.0 forecast ,59.2 previous
•14:00 US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 61.6 forecast ,64.9 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 695 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count556 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as European Central Bank suggested that the tightening cycle was not over. The ECB delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate hike on Thursday, with president Christine Lagarde reiterating there was more ground to cover. It also reviewed to the upside its inflation forecasts leading some analysts to raise their projections for the ECB depo rate to peak at 4%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0973 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0937(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was set for its biggest weekly rise in six months on Friday after days of economic data and central bank rate decisions, and ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting next week. At 0900 GMT, the pound was at $1.279, up less than 0.1% against the dollar at around its highest level since April. It was up 1.72% since Monday, the biggest weekly increase since early December. The BoE’s main rate currently stands at 4.5%, and on Friday traders expected it to rise to around 5.75% by the start of next year, according to pricing in derivatives markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2849(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2900 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2769(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2716(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Friday as investors digested a host of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause on interest rate hikes. The Fed on Wednesday left its policy rate unchanged, but signalled in new projections that borrowing costs might still need to rise by as much as half a percentage point by year end. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in July being the only rate hike in 2023, the CME’s FedWatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 09047 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9090(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8899(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8872( May 10th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept ultra-low interest rates and forecast that inflation will slow later this year. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The Japanese currency fell 0.5% against the U.S. dollar to 141.02 yen . The yen was last down 0.5% on the day at 154.43 per euro. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.62(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.84(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.43(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Friday, underpinned by defensive healthcare and utilities stocks at the end of a week that was dominated by major central bank policy decisions.
At (GMT 13:06),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.83 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 1.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Friday as the dollar hovered near a month’s low, but expectations of more U.S. interest rate hikes this year capped gains.
Spot gold gained 0.5% to $1,967.29 per ounce by 1217 GMT, en route a 0.3% advance for the week. U.S. gold futures was up 0.4% to $1,978.20.
Oil steadied on Friday, on course for a weekly gain, as a market outlook tightened by higher Chinese demand and OPEC+ supply cuts was balanced by expected weakness in the global economy with the prospect of further interest rate hikes.
Brent crude rose 4 cents to $75.71 a barrel by 1207 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also gained 4 cents to $70.66.