Posted at 16 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US May Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.4%, -0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•US May Retail Control (MoM) 0.2%,0.0% forecast,0.7% previous
•US May Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3%, -0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US May Export Price Index (MoM) -1.9%, 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•US May Import Price Index (MoM) -0.6%, -0.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Jun May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index-13.7 , -13.5 forecast,-10.4 previous
•US Jun Philly Fed Business Conditions 12.7, -10.9 forecast,-10.3 previous
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.60, -16.00 forecast,-31.80 previous
•US May Retail Sales (YoY) 1.61%, .20% forecast,1.60% previous
•US May Canada Apr Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.3%, -0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 262K, 250K forecast,261K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 246.75K, 233.38K forecast,237.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,775K,1,761K forecast,1,757K previous
• US May Industrial Production (YoY) 0.23, 0.24% previous
•US May Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.2%,-0.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•US May Capacity Utilization Rate 79.6%, 79.7% forecast,79.7% previous
• US Natural Gas Storage 84B, 96B forecast,104B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.010%,5.090% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.080%, 5.120% previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No meeting ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the eighth straight time and signaled further tightening to bring euro zone inflation to its medium-term target of 2%. The ECB lifted rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, to 3.5%, the highest in 22 years. The ECB move came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled further rate hikes to come this year The euro was last up 1.1% at $1.0948 after earlier touching a five-week high of $1.0952 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0953(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0863 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised interest rates to their highest level in more than two decades. The ECB said it expected inflation to hover above its 2% target rate through to 2025 and hinted at more interest rate hikes, even as the euro zone economy lags. Expectations for further UK rate hikes meanwhile have shot up this week after Tuesday’s jobs data. The Bank of England plans to hold a review into how it forecasts the economy, after lawmakers criticised its failure to foresee the scale and duration of inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2794 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2839(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2600(5DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a nine-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices jumped and investors questioned whether the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates further as the central bank has signaled. Housing starts tumbled 23% in May compared with the previous month, a much bigger decline than analysts had expected. But manufacturing sales posted surprising growth in April, rising by 0.3% from March.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 3.4% higher at $70.62 a barrel as data showed a jump in refinery runs in top crude importer China. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3213 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3295 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3312 (38.2% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3210 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3194(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against Japanese yen on Thursday as dollar moved lower after U.S. economic data, offering investors respite from a ‘hawkish pause’ on interest rates by the Federal Reserve. U.S. initial jobless claims were unchanged at 262,000 for last week, while separate data showed industrial output dropped 0.2% in May, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but signalled that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as half of a percentage point by the end of this year. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140:07 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.48(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised borrowing costs as expected and signalled more policy tightening in its fight against sticky inflation.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 51 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged on Thursday to close at their highest in 14 months, as investors cheered economic data that fueled bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive interest-rate hike campaign.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.26 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.22 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.15 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Thursday as investors parsed a slew of economic data and assessed the ramifications from the latest policy statement released on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 7.4 basis points to 3.724%, on track for its biggest one-day drop since May 30.
Commodities Recap
Gold bounced back from a three-month low on Thursday as the dollar and bond yields moved lower after U.S. economic data, offering investors respite from a ‘hawkish pause’ on interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold gained 0.8% to $1,957.73 per ounce by 01:41 p.m. EDT (17:41 GMT) after having hit its lowest since March 17. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $1,970.7.
Oil prices gained about 3% to a one-week high on Thursday on a weaker U.S. dollar and a jump in refinery runs in top crude importer China.
Brent futures rose $2.47, or 3.4%, to settle at $75.67 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.35, or 3.4%, to settle at $70.62.