Posted at 15 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss May PPI (MoM) -0.3%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•Swiss May PPI (YoY) -0.3%,-0.2% forecast,1.0% previous
•French May CPI (MoM) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
•French May HICP (YoY) 6.0%,6.0% forecast,6.9% previous
• French May Inflation (YoY) 5.00% forecast, 5.80% previous
•French May HICP (MoM) -0.1%,-0.1% forecast,0.7% previous
• French May CPI (MoM) -0.10%,-0.10% forecast,-0.10% previous
•Italian Apr Trade Balance 0.318B forecast,7.541B previous
•Italian Apr Trade Balance EU -0.92B forecast, -0.92B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US May Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 US May Retail Control (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.7% previous
•12:30 US May Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Export Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US May Import Price Index (MoM) -0.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Jun May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -13.5 forecast,-10.4 previous
•12:30 US Jun Philly Fed Business Conditions -10.9 forecast,-10.3 previous
•12:30 US Jun Philly Fed New Orders -15.8 forecast,-8.9 previous
•12:30 US Jun Philly Fed Prices Paid 9.50 forecast,10.90 previous
•12:30 US Jun Philly Fed Employment -4.4 forecast,-8.6 previous
•12:30 US Jun Philly Fed CAPEX Index -1.40 forecast,2.50 previous
•12:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -16.00 forecast,-31.80 previous
•12:30 US May Retail Sales (YoY) 2.20% forecast,1.60% previous
•12:30 US May Canada Apr Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 250K forecast, 261K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.233.38K forecast,237.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,761K forecast,1,757K previous
•13:15 US May Industrial Production (YoY) 0.24% previous
•13:15 US May Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•13:15 US May Capacity Utilization Rate 79.7% forecast,79.7% previous
•13:15 US May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:15 US Apr Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 96B forecast,104B previous
• 14:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.090% previous
• 15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.120% previous
Looking Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:45 ECB Press Conference
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited interest decision by European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day. The ECB is seen increasing the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, the highest level in 22 years, while leaving the door open to more hikes to stamp out the sticky inflation even as the eurozone economy lags.Inflation in the euro zone is at 6.1%, more than three times the ECB's 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0838(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0851(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0790(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0767(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling struggled to make headway against the dollar on Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled more hikes in borrowing costs were possible.At 1040 GMT, sterling was barely moved at $1.2660 and was up 0.12% against the euro at 85.65 pence.On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged after 10 successive hikes, but signalled a more hawkish tilt later this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2680 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2724(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2598(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2560(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eked out gains against Swiss franc on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signalled further rate hikes to come this year as attention turned to the European Central Bank policy announcement later in the day.The Fed's policy decision snapped a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes, but the projections, or dot plot, showed policymakers expect two more increases by the end of 2023. Chair Jerome Powell said rate cuts in 2023 would not be appropriate. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of currencies, was up 0.2% at 103.09, recovering from a four-week low of 102.66 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 09047 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9090(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8963(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8936( Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled more interest rate hikes this year. The Fed, in new economic projections, signalled that a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation will result in a likely rise in borrowing costs by another half a percentage point by the end of this year. Traders are now pricing in a roughly 72% chance of a Fed rate hike in July, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.62(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.87(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.84(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.43(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday amid rising fears of an increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day just after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled more hikes.
At (GMT 12:04),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.09percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.74 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slid to a near three-month low on Thursday as the dollar strengthened after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would implement more interest rate hikes this year.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $1,934.96 per ounce by 0919 GMT, hitting its lowest since March 17. U.S. gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,943.00.
Oil prices rose on Thursday after a plunge the previous day, as data showed a jump in refinery runs at the world's top crude importer China, but a weak economic backdrop capped gains.
Brent crude futures were up 84 cents, or 1.15%, to $74.04 a barrel at 0959 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 77 cents, or 1.13%, to $69.04 a barrel.Both benchmarks fell 1.5% on Wednesday.