Posted at 14 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Apr Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.3% ,-0.4%forecast, 0.7% previous
• UK Apr Industrial Production (YoY) -1.9%,-1.7% forecast,-2.0% previous
• UK Monthly Apr GDP 3M/3M Change 0.1%,-0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
• UK Apr GDP (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
• UK Apr Trade Balance -15.00B, -16.50B forecast,-16.36B previous
• UK Apr Trade Balance Non-EU -5.04B ,-6.51B forecast,-5.46B previous
• UK Apr Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%, -0.1% forecast,0.7% previous
• UK Apr GDP (YoY) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
• EU Apr Industrial Production (YoY) 0.2%,0.8% forecast,-1.4% previous
• EU Apr Industrial Production (MoM) 1.0%,1.0% forecast,-4.1% previous
• US May PPI (YoY) 1.1%,1.5% forecast,2.3% previous
• US May PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% previous
• US PPI (MoM) -0.3%,-0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
• US May Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% ,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US May PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.8%, 3.4% previous
• US May Core PPI (YoY) 2.8% ,2.9% forecast, 3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.482M forecast,-0.451M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories 0.637M forecast,2.746M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.100M forecast,-0.362M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.922M forecast,5.075M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.782M forecast,1.623M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.002M forecast,0.203M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories0.922M forecast,1.721M previous
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.25% forecast,5.25% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q2)3.1% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q2) 4.3% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q2)2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Statements
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day after data showed a slowdown in U.S. inflation, strengthening bets of a pause. The much-anticipated U.S. inflation report showed prices barely rose in May, bolstering the probability of a pause from the Fed with the market seeing a more than 97% chance of a pause, followed by a 65% chance of an increase in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0838(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0851(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0790(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0767(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose higher versus the dollar on Wednesday after data showed Britain’s economy grew modestly in April, as traders remained unnerved by an earlier release signalling sticky inflation. Wednesday’s Office for National Statistics figures showed retailers and the film industry helped Britain’s economy grow by 0.2% month-on-month in April, pointing to slow growth rather than a recession. But contractions were seen in manufacturing and construction. By 0927 GMT, the pound was 0.2% up against the dollar and 0.15% higher against the euro at 85.49 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2680 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2724(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2598(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2560(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss franc on Wednesday as soft U.S. inflation data cemented the view that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates later in the day. In April, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) logged its smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 at 4.0%.The chances of the Fed raising rates by a quarter point have dropped to below 5%, from around 21% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The dollar index - which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others - dipped 0.2% to 103.14, after touching its lowest since May 22 overnight at 103.04. Immediate resistance can be seen at 09061 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09108(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8988(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8945( Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against Japanese yen on Wednesday traders assessed U.S. inflation data and its bearing on the Federal Reserve's much-awaited policy decision due later in the day. The U.S. consumer price index rose 4.0% in May, its smallest annual increase in more than two years, but stayed well above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. Fed officials sat down on Tuesday for their first meeting in 15 months with no pre-determined rate hike on the table, in what amounts to the debut gathering of the “will-they-or-won’t-they” era.Markets are pricing in a roughly 90% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool. The dollar eased 0.14% to 139.98 yen , retreating from a one-week high the day before. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.62(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.73(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.54(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.86(June 9th low)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday, ahead of a broadly priced-in pause in interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while Entain shares fell sharply after announcing a deal.
At (GMT 12:50),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0. 61 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's June meeting after bullish oil demand growth forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC.
Brent crude futures were up 66 cents, or 0.9%, at $74.95 a barrel by 1226 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 56 cents, or 0.8%, at $69.98.
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday on expectations of an interest rate pause at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting concluding later in the day, while a softer dollar also boosted bullion.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,948.59 per ounce by 1222 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $1,961.20.