Posted at 13 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German May CPI (MoM) -0.1%,-0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
• German May HICP (YoY) 6.3%, 6.3% forecast,7.6% previous
•German May HICP (MoM) -0.2%,-0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•German May CPI (YoY) 6.1%,6.1% forecast,7.2% previous
•UK Apr Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 250K, 150K forecast,182K previous
•UK Apr Average Earnings Index +Bonus 6.5%,6.1% forecast,5.8% previous
•UK Apr Unemployment Rate 3.8%,4.0% forecast,3.9% previous
•UK May Claimant Count Change -13.6K ,21.4K forecast, 46.7K previous
•German Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment -10.0,-11.9 forecast,-9.4 previous
•German Jun ZEW Current Conditions -56.5,-40.0 forecast,--34.8 previous
•German Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment -8,-13.1 forecast,-10.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US May CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.51% previous
•12:30 US May Real Earnings (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US May CPI Index, s.a 303.70 forecast,302.92 previous
•12:30 US May Core CPI Index 307.53 forecast,306.49 previous
•12:30 US May CPI (YoY) 4.1% forecast,4.9% previous
•12:30 US May CPI Index, n.s.a. 304.06 forecast,303.36 previous
•12:30 US May CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US May Core CPI (YoY) 5.3% forecast,5.5% previous
•12:30 US May Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.6% previous
•15:00 US May Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 UK BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
•14:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.Consumer inflation on Tuesday and wholesale data on Wednesday could offer investors evidence of how successful the Fed has been in taming price pressures, and an indication of how much more U.S. rates may need to rise. The dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.2% to 103.32.the euro rose 0.4% to $1.0796. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0797(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0818(May 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0736(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0708(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Tuesday, after data showed wages in Britain are growing far more quickly than expected, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates, which in turn pushed the government's borrowing costs to their highest since 2008. The BoE meets next week to discuss monetary policy. With inflation running above 8% and households .Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday showed UK wages in the three months to April grew at their fastest pace on record, excluding during the pandemic, at a clip of 7.2%, after an increase in the national minimum wage. The pound rose by as much as 0.52%, before retreating to $1.257, showing a 0.45% gain on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2584 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2615(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2511(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2454(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited U.S. inflation data. U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) data is due out at 1230 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) and could influence the Federal Reserve as it starts its two-day policy meeting, with an interest rate decision due on Wednesday. The Fed lifted its target rate range to 5% to 5.25% in May, but traders think there is a 77% chance the Fed will hold it steady this week. Traders broadly expect another 25 bp hike in July, after Fed officials hinted at a so-called skip. Immediate resistance can be seen at 09061 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09108(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8988(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8945( Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was little changed against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors positioned ahead Bank of Japan meeting. The Bank of Japan is due to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday and is expected to maintain its ultra-dovish stance and yield curve control settings. One of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's biggest challenges will be to phase out a controversial yield curve control policy, which is criticised for distorting markets by keeping long-term interest rates low despite creeping inflation. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar slipped very slightly to 139.50. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.33(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.04(higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.00(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.23(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares traded flat on Tuesday amid growing hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would skip raising rates in its policy meeting.
At (GMT 12:22),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0. 4 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher as the dollar softened on Tuesday but lacked the momentum to break out of a recent tight range as traders positioned for U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,963.29 per by 1016 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,976.80.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on apparent bargain hunting, recovering some ground from the previous day's plunge.
Brent crude futures climbed $1.47, or 2.1%, to $73.31 a barrel by 1034 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $68.32 a barrel, up $1.20, or 1.8%.