Posted at 12 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
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Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
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Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday ahead of key inflation data and U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings later in the week. The Fed will end its two-day meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank will deliver rate decisions on Thursday .Analysts expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) and to signal that there is more ground to cover, as it wants to avoid delivering dovish signals which might prompted an unwanted easing of financial conditions. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0768, having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0792(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0818(May 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0736(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0708(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling held mostly steady on Monday, ahead of a week packed with central bank decisions and key economic data, starting with a read on the UK jobs market that could be pivotal in setting expectations for what the Bank of England may do next week. The currency market showed little reaction to developments on the political front in the UK, after the surprise resignation from parliament of former Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson and two fellow lawmakers over the weekend.The pound, which is heading for its third successive quarterly gain against the dollar, was up 0.1% at $1.2594. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2584 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2615(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2511(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2454(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as traders stayed on guard ahead of monetary policy decisions due this week from several central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Monetary policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. Money markets are leaning towards a pause from the Fed when it announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday .U.S. May inflation data is also out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 09061 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09108(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8988(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8945( Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against Japanese yen on Monday as investors positioned for a series of major central bank policy meetings this week, with a likely pause in interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.U.S. May inflation data is due on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. Early estimates show the pace of month-on-month inflation easing, up 0.2% in May after having risen 0.4% in April .Traders see a near 75% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.00%-5.25% range, and a 54% chance of a 25 bps hike in July, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.33(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.04(higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.00(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.23(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Monday at the start of a week packed with major central bank policy meetings, while shares of Swiss drugmaker Novartis rose after it agreed to buy U.S.-based Chinook.
At (GMT 12:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday on a weaker dollar as investors positioned for key U.S. economic data and clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path at its meeting this week.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,964.50 per ounce by 6:49 a.m. ET (1049 GMT). U.S. gold futures were also up 0.2% to $1,980.30
Oil prices fell on Monday ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting as investors tried to gauge its appetite for further rate hikes and amid concerns about the prospects for Chinese demand and rising Russian supply.
Brent crude futures was down $1.42, or 1.9%, to $73.37 a barrel by 0902 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $68.61, down $1.56 or 2.2%.