Posted at 07 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss May Unemployment Rate n.s.a 1.9%,1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
•Swiss May Unemployment Rate s.a 2.0%, 1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous
•UK May Halifax House Price Index (YoY) -1.0%, -0.9% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK May Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
•French Apr Trade -9.7B, -7.7B forecast, -8.0B previous
•French Apr Imports 59.5B, 58.7B previous
•UK May Mortgage Rate 7.44% forecast, 7.41% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Apr Exports 63.56B previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Trade Balance 0.90B forecast, 0.97B previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Imports 62.59B previous
•12:30 US Apr Trade Balance -75.20B forecast, -64.20B previous
•12:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•12:30 US Imports 320.40B previous
•12:30 US Exports 256.20B previous
•12:30 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast, 4.50% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.022M forecast, 4.488M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories 0.880M forecast, -0.207M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.719M forecast, 1.628M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 Canada BoC Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday as hawkish commentsECB officaila s boosted euro. Hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel on Monday cemented expectations for further rate hikes from the central bank in June.Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said that underlying price pressures in the euro zone may prove more difficult to tame but monetary policy is showing signs of effectiveness and further rate hikes must be done step by step.These comments come even as the U.S. money markets bet on the Federal Reserve skipping raising rates this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0715(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0746(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0659(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0624(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held steady on Wednesday after data showed the first annual drop in UK house prices in more than a decade, and traders focused on sticky inflation and the outlook for Bank of England monetary policy. Halifax said on Wednesday, as an increase in mortgage rates from the country's largest provider comes into effect. he UK central bank will next convene on June 22, with traders betting on an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate rise. The BoE has raised rates 12 times since late 2021 to 4.5% from just 0.1% in to try to calm inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2466 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2512 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2392(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2321(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss franc on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve.The U.S. inflation report for May, due on June 13, ahead of the Fed meeting, will provide investors with more clarity about the health of the world’s largest economy.While traders anticipate a nearly 74% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates in the 5%-5.25% range, they see nearly 51% odds of another hike in July, bringing rates in the 5.25%-5.50% range, per the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09131(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9035 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9011 38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Wednesday as attention turned towards next week's pivotal inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting, where chances of a rate hike continued to ebb. The odds of a rate hike at the June 13-14 meeting have dropped to nearly 20% following weak U.S. manufacturing and services data and relatively less hawkish comments by two Fed officials before the quiet period. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.78(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.36(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.39(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.34(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares little was changed Wednesday a as weak Chinese trade data had investors fretting about softening global demand, with attention turning towards next week's pivotal inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting.
At (GMT 12:14),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as traders refrained from making big bets while positioning for fresh economic data and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy next week.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,962.47 per ounce by 1114 GMT, holding in a $13 range. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,979.50.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's surprise weekend pledge to deepen output cuts outweighed weak Chinese export data and rising U.S. fuel stocks.
Brent crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $76.65 a barrel by 0949 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.11.