Posted at 06 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Apr Factory Orders (MoM) -0.4%, -2.2% forecast, -10.7% previous
•Spanish Apr Industrial Production (YoY) -0.9%, 1.7% forecast, 4.5% previous
•EU May M2 Money Supply (MoM) 44.6, 45.2 previous
•German May IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 43.9, 42.0 previous
•French May IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 42.6 , 46.0 previous
•Italian May IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) 47.9, 49.0 previous
•UK May Construction PMI 51.6, 51.0 forecast, 51.1 previous
•EU Apr Retail Sales (YoY) -2.6%, -3.1% forecast,-3.8% previous
•EU Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast,-1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 1.2% previous
•14:00 Canada May Ivey PMI 57.2 forecast, 56.8 previous
•14:00 Canada May Ivey PMI n.s.a 55.6 previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.2 forecast, 41.6 previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 0.0% forecast, -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday after a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed consumers had lowered their inflation expectations.Median forecasts for inflation over the next 12 months fell to 4.1% in April from 5.0% in March, while for three years ahead, they dropped to 2.5% from 2.9%, the ECB said, based on a monthly survey in the euro zone’s biggest countries. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0715(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0746(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0659(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0624(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Tuesday as data showed that British house building wilted in May and the dollar found a footing. The survey data showed house building in Britain fell at its fastest pace since May 2020 last month as construction companies struggled with rising interest rates.The headline purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey score for the construction sector came in at 51.6 in May, above the 50 mark which signals growth and up from 51.1 in April . Sterling was last down 0.18% at $1.241. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2432 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2457 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2373(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2305(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Tuesday after dropping on Monday following unexpectedly soft U.S. services data, that clouded the policy outlook for the months ahead. U.S. rates have been a central focus for investors globally, with recent data and Fed rhetoric causing volatility in the U.S. currency.The dollar index which measures the currency against six major peers - was up 0.1% at 104.15, after a shaky few days during which it rallied to a 2 1/2-month peak at 104.70 on the final day of May, only to get knocked back by suggestions from Fed officials that they would skip a rate hike in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09131(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9084 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9072(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was flat against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors sought more clarity around the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Data overnight showed the U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, pushing a measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs to a three-year low, which could aid the Fed's fight against inflation. A string of economic data along with last week's dovish rhetoric from Fed officials has emboldened bets that the Fed will likely refrain from lifting rates at its June 13-14 meeting.The services industry accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.Strong resistance can be seen at 140.78(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.36(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.44(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.34(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks started Tuesday mixed, as soft U.S. economic data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve may skip an interest rate hike when it meets next week.k.
At (GMT 12:14),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors sought more clarity around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, but lower Treasury yields kept a floor under non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,960.70 per ounce by 0938 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,977.20.
Oil prices tumbled more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, after a strong rally in the previous session as worries about global economic growth outweighed Saudi Arabia's pledge to deepen output cuts.
Brent crude futures were down $1.50, or 1.96%, to $75.21 a barrel by 1046 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.47, or 2.04%, to $70.68 a barrel.