Posted at 05 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Apr Trade Balance 18.4B,16.0B forecast,16.7B previous
•German Apr Imports (MoM) -1.7%,-1.0% forecast,-6.4% previous
•German Apr Exports (MoM) 1.2%,-2.5% forecast,-5.2% previous
•Swiss May CPI (YoY)2.2%,2.8% forecast,2.6% previous
•Swiss May CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•Sweden May Services PMI (MoM) 50.2,46.7 forecast,50.5 previous
•French May Services PMI 52.5, 52.8 forecast,54.6 previous
•German May Services PMI 57.2, 57.8 forecast,56.0 previous
•EU May Services PMI 55.1, 55.9 forecast,56.2 previous
•EU May S&P Global Composite PMI 52.8, 53.3 forecast,54.1 previous
•UK May Services PMI 55.2, 55.1 forecast,55.9 previous
•EU Jun Sentix Investor Confidence -17.0, -15.2 forecast,-13.1 previous
•UK May Composite PMI 54.0, 53.9 forecast, 54.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.359% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction .202% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.274% previous
•13:45 US S&P May Global Composite PMI 54.5 forecast,53.4 previous
•13:45 US May Services PMI 55.1 forecast,53.6 previous
•14:00 US Apr Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.6% forecast,-0.7% previous
•14:00 EU German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•14:00 US May CB Employment Trends Index 116.31 forecast, 116.18 previous
•14:00 US Apr Factory Orders (MoM) 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•14:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 57.8 forecast, 59.6 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.8 forecast,51.9 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 51.0 forecast,50.8 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 56.5 forecast,56.1 previous
•14:00 US ISM May Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.5 forecast,52.0 previous
•14:00 US Apr Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Apr Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.6% previous
•15:30 US3-Month Bill Auction 5.300% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.290% previous
Looking Ahead Events Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against on Monday as dollar firmed after a robust U.S. jobs report spurred traders to price in higher interest rates for longer. U.S. jobs growth was much stronger than expected in May, wage pressures eased and the unemployment rate climbed off a 53-year low, potentially giving the Federal Reserve scope to pause their rate hiking campaign at the upcoming June 13-14 meeting, as some officials had voiced a preference for doing last week . The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.06950, extending the previous session's 0.5% slide. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0715(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0746(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0659(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0624(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Monday as markets priced in around a 30% chance of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising benchmark rates this month after robust jobs data on Friday. as markets priced in around a 30% chance of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising benchmark rates this month after robust jobs data on Friday. Markets now put the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the meeting on June 13-14 at 29.1%, down from 2-in-3 odds a week earlier.U.S. services data due later on Monday could give further clues, though analysts said core inflation data due next week was more likely to move the needle.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2432 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2457 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2373(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2305(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 339,000 jobs last month, exceeding a 190,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters. But the unemployment rate surged to a seven-month high of 3.7% from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April.The higher unemployment reading prompted markets to price in a 79.3% chance of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting. The dollar index was last up 0.1% on the day at 104.250. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09131(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9084 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9072(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Monday as the view took hold among investors that the Federal Reserve will forgo an interest rate hike this month . Data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs last month, higher than most estimates, but moderating wage growth and a rising jobless rate led markets to continue to bet on no change in Fed rates this month, with a 75% chance priced in for that, according to CME FedWatch tool. The dollar gained 0.2% versus the yen at 140.265.Strong resistance can be seen at 140.78(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.36(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.44(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.34(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares opened flat on Monday as markets failed to catch the tailwind from a bounce seen last week, while London stocks led regional gains following upbeat performances by energy firms on the back of higher oil prices.
At (GMT 12:14),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose by more than $1 a barrel on Monday after top crude exporter Saudi Arabia pledged to cut production by a further 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from July to counter macroeconomic headwinds that have depressed markets.
Brent crude futures were up $1.37, or 1.8%, at $77.50 a barrel by 1100 GMT after touching a session high of $78.73.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by $1.39, or 1.9%, to $73.13 after hitting an intraday high of $75.06.
Gold slipped on Monday as the dollar firmed after strong U.S. payrolls data last week, offsetting some of the support for zero-yield bullion from bets that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes in June.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,939.44 per ounce by 1130 GMT, close to its lowest level since May 30. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,956.40 per ounce.