Posted at 01 June 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK May Nationwide HPI (MoM)-0.1%, -0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK May Nationwide HPI (YoY) -3.4%, -2.7% previous
•UK May Sweden Manufacturing PMI 40.6, 46.3 forecast, 45.5 previous
•Italian May Manufacturing PMI 45.9, 45.8 forecast, 46.8 previous
•French May Manufacturing PMI 45.7, 46.1 forecast, 45.6 previous
•German May Manufacturing PMI 43.2, 42.9 forecast, 44.5 previous
•EU May Manufacturing PMI 44.8,44.6 forecast,45.8 previous
•UK Apr M4 Money Supply (MoM) 0.0%,-0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•UK May Manufacturing PMI 47.1,46.9 forecast,47.8 previous
•UK May CPI (YoY) 6.1%,6.3% forecast,7.0% previous
•EU May HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.9%,7.2% forecast,7.3% previous
•EU May CPI, n.s.a 123.16, 123.16 forecast,123.13 previous
•EU Apr Unemployment Rate 6.5%,6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY)5.3%, 5.5% forecast,5.6% previous
•EU CPI (MoM)0.0%,0.6% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) 6.3% forecast,3.2% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)-2.7% forecast,1.7% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 235K forecast ,229K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 231.75K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,800K forecast , 1,794K previous
•13:45 US May Manufacturing PMI 48.5 forecast ,50.2 previous
•14:00 US Apr Construction Spending (MoM) 0.1% forecast ,0.3% previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.0 forecast ,47.1 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.0 forecast ,53.2 previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.772M forecast ,1.762M previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.5forecast ,50.2 previous
•14:00 US May ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 44.9 forecast ,45.7 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 113B forecast, 96B previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.101M forecast,-12.456M previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Thursday near a two-month low after data showed euro zone inflation eased more than expected last month, backing arguments for only cautious further rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB).Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 6.1% in May from 7.0% in April, below expectations for 6.3% in a Reuters poll of economists. The ECB has raised base rates by a combined 375 basis points to 3.25% over the past year to combat runaway prices. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps hike by the ECB when it meets on June 15.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0712(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0748(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0657(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged up on Thursday, taking advantage of a dip in the dollar after Federal Reserve officials indicated the central bank might skip a rate hike this month, while UK data painted a picture of an increasingly gloomy economy. Data from the Bank of England (BoE) showed British lenders approved fewer mortgages in April than in March and the value of new loans also fell, highlighting the softness in the housing market.Sterling was last up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2467 and flat against the euro at 85.90 pence, close to its strongest in six months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2450 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2481 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2331(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Thursday as investors trimmed bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, though a vote of approval from the U.S. House to suspend the debt ceiling lent some support to the greenback. Fed comments on Wednesday prompted a quick reversal of market expectations which now gave a roughly 37% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting. Investors were awaiting initial U.S. jobless claims data due at 1230 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9129(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09156(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9072 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9046(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Thursday as receding bets for a U.S. rate hike this month weighed on greenback. The U.S. dollar retreated from a two-week top against major peers as Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday pointed towards a rate hike skip in June, even as the passing of the U.S. debt ceiling bill in the House of Representatives gave safe haven support to the greenback. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.59(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.59(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.81(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.32(May 24th Low)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Thursday on hopes the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates steady this month, while the passage of a U.S. bill through the House of Representatives brought relief to investors worried about a potential debt default.
At (GMT 12:17),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.83percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.33 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as risky assets got a boost from the passage of a U.S. debt ceiling bill ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key policy setting meeting.
Spot gold slipped 0.11 % to $1,960.09 per ounce by 1014 GMT. It fell 1.4% over the month of May. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% on the day at $1,977.30.
Oil steadied on Thursday as a potential pause in U.S. interest rate hikes and the passing of a crucial vote on the U.S. debt ceiling bill were offset by a report of rising inventories in the world's biggest oil consumer.
Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.23%, to $72.43 a barrel by 1203 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) slipped by 16 cents, or 0.23%, to $67.93. Both benchmarks fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.