Posted at 31 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German May CPI (YoY) 5.7%, 6.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
•German Apr Import Price Index (YoY) -7.0%, 5.9% forecast, -3.8% previous
•German Apr Import Price Index (MoM) -1.7%, -0.9% forecast, -1.1% previous
•Switzerland Apr Retail Sales (YoY) -3.7%, -1.4% forecast,-1.9% previous
•French May CPI (MoM) -0.1% ,0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French Apr Consumer Spending (MoM) -1.0%, 0.3% forecast, -1.3% previous
•French GDP (YoY) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French HICP (MoM) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast,0.7% previous
•German May Unemployment 2.573M ,2.567M forecast, 2.567M previous
•German May Unemployment Change 9K, 14K forecast, 24K previous
•German May Unemployment Rate 5.6%,5.6% forecast,5.6% previous
•German May Unemployment n.s.a 2.544M, 2.586M forecast, 2.586M previous
•German May CPI (MoM) 0.0%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•German May CPI (YoY) 6.6%,7.3% forecast, 7.8% previous
•German May CPI (YoY) 6.1%,7.2% forecast,7.2% previous
•German May CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
•German May CPI (YoY) 7.3%,7.2% previous
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8% ,0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
• Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1) 0.20% , 1.80% forecast, -0.70% previous
•Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1) 2.21% ,2.80% forecast, 2.07% previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1) 3.1% ,1.5% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Events (GMT)
•13:45 US May Chicago PMI 47.0 forecast, 48.6 previous
•14:00 US Apr JOLTs Job Openings 9.775M forecast, 9.590M previous
•14:30 US May Texas Services Sector Outlook -16.0 forecast ,-14.4 previous
•14:30 US May Dallas Fed Services Revenues 4.2 forecast ,6.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:30 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
• 17:30 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Wednesday after data showed European inflation is cooling quicker than expected. Data on Wednesday showed inflation in France and some of Germany's biggest states is slowing quickly. Analysts said the figures reduced the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep raising interest rates, diminishing the euro's attractiveness relative to the dollar.In France, inflation cooled in May to its lowest level in a year as energy and food price increases moderated. Euro zone-wide inflation data is due out tomorrow.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0762(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0772(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0661(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0622(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling weakened on Wednesday as U.S. dollar climbed on expectations the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester sees no compelling reason to wait to implement another interest rate hike, Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Fed funds futures expect a 62% chance of a 25 bps hike in the central bank's June 13-14 meeting, with rate cuts being priced out for the second half of the year.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2450 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2481 (21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2331(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as progress on the U.S. debt ceiling deal and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates further bolstered the dollar . Legislation brokered by U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and achieve new federal spending cuts passed an important hurdle, advancing to the full House of Representatives for debate and an expected vote on passage on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9144(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09155(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9055 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9033(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Wednesday as Investors remained cautious after weak China data. Data showed China's manufacturing activity fell more than expected in May, while services growth which has been one of the few bright spots in its patchy recovery -- slackened to its slowest pace in four months. After the elimination of stringent COVID restrictions late last year, the figures offered more evidence that the economy is losing steam, further dimming the global outlook . The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, climb to 104.63, its highest since March 16. It was last up 0.43% at 104.5. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.98(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.48(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.22(11DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.85(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares hit an over two-month low on Wednesday as weak economic data from China fuelled concerns about a global slowdown and countered optimism from signs of easing inflation in some of the major euro zone economies.
At (GMT 12:45),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.78 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Wednesday yet was headed for its first monthly decline in three as the U.S. dollar climbed on expectations the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought.
Spot gold was largely unchanged at $1,958.69 per ounce by 1123 GMT. It has lost nearly 1.6% so far this month and $120 from its near-record highs earlier in May.U.S. gold futures held steady at $1,976.30.
Oil prices fell by over 2% on Wednesday on a stronger U.S. dollar and as weak data from top oil importer China raised demand fears.
Brent crude futures for August delivery were down $1.75, or 2.37%, to $71.96 a barrel at 1151 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.90, or 2.74%, to $67.56.Both benchmarks fell by more than 4% on Tuesday.