Posted at 29 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish May Consumer Confidence -8.8,-7.9 previous
•Finnish May Industrial Confidence -12 ,-13 previous
•Sweden Apr Household Lending Growth (YoY) 1.9%,2.1% forecast,2.3% previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:50 US Apr Dallas Fed 3.40% previous
•17:00 Brazil Apr CAGED Net Payroll Jobs 195.17K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Monday as the deal to suspend the U.S. government’s debt ceiling ended a months-long stalemate and angst for investors. After weeks of negotiations, McCarthy and Biden forged a agreement late on Saturday to avert an economically destabilising default to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until 2025. The deal will now have to passes through the narrowly divided Congress.Trading was light with markets in the U.S., the UK and several European countries closed. The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 104.25 and the euro was a touch lower at $1.0714 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0762(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0772(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0704 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0633(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was flat against dollar on Monday as a tentative deal sealed over the weekend to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling coupled with jitters around higher-for-longer interest rates kept investors cautious. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, aiming to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. The deal is expected to provide only short-term relief for markets, as worries linger about inflation and further rate increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2397 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2431 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2312 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2289(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Monday as U.S. President Joe Biden on Sunday finalised a budget agreement with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025, and said the deal was ready to move to Congress for a vote.If the debt ceiling deal passes through Congress, then market attention will return to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans for rates. Markets are leaning towards expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points next month, then keep rates steady for the rest of the year . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9069(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09087 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9028 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8996(14DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar pulled back from six-month peaks against the yen as a U.S. debt ceiling deal dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal. The greenback notched a fresh six-month high of 140.91 before easing and was headed for a monthly gain of more than 3% against the Japanese currency. The yen’s renewed decline has come on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as bets grow that interest rates in the United States would stay higher for longer. Yields on U.S. Treasuries jumped on the back of the data, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, rising more than 10 basis .Strong resistance can be seen at 140.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.34(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.49(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 138.94(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stock indexes slipped slightly on Monday, lacking momentum in thin trade while optimism about the U.S. having reached a debt ceiling deal over the weekend kept Wall Street futures positive.
At (GMT 12:09),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched lower in thin trading on Monday as the U.S. debt ceiling agreement took worries off the market and weighed on safer assets, while chances of the Federal Reserve raising rates higher dampened the demand for bullion.
Spot gold inched 0.1% lower to $1,945.29 per ounce by 1013 GMT, hovering near two-month lows hit on Friday. U.S. gold futures were also unchanged at $1,944.80.
Oil prices were steady on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, but concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains.
Brent crude futures slipped 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $76.75 a barrel by 1055 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $72.58 a barrel, down 9 cents, or 0.1%.