Posted at 26 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.9% previous
•Sweden Apr PPI (YoY) 1.3%, -0.6% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK Apr Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8%, 0.3% forecast, -1.0% previous
•UK Apr Retail Sales (YoY) -3.0%, -2.8% forecast, -3.1% previous
•UK Apr Core Retail Sales (YoY) -2.6%, -2.8% forecast, -3.2% previous
•Sweden Apr Retail Sales (MoM) 2.8%, -0.4% forecast, -1.6% previous
•Sweden Employment Level (Q1) 5.389M, 5.433M forecast, 5.398M previous
•Italian May Business Confidence 101.4, 102.5 forecast, 103.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) -0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
•12:30 US Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr Goods Trade Balance -85.70B forecast, -84.60B previous
•12:30 US Apr Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.1% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 US Apr Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 US Apr Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 3.4% previous
•12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.6% forecast, 4.6% previous
•12:30 US Apr Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr PCE Price index (YoY) 3.9% forecast,4.2% previous
•12:30 US Apr PCE price index (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Apr Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Apr Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -1.0% forecast, 3.2% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.5% forecast,4.6% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.2% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 USMay Michigan Current Conditions 64.5 forecast,68.2 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Expectations 53.4 forecast,60.5 previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment 57.9 forecast,63.5 previous
•14:50 US Apr Dallas Fed PCE 3.40% previous
•15:00 Canada Mar Budget Balance -0.17B forecast,9.53B previous
•15:00 Canada Mar Budget Balance (YoY) -1.68B forecast,3.09B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 720 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 575 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro regained some ground on Friday but was struggling to recoup recent losses against the dollar. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items.Concerns about whether the two sides could reach a deal and avert a debt default have weighed on markets in the recent weeks. The single currency was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.07350, but was not far from its two-month low of $1.0708 hit in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0762(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0772(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0704 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0633(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday after data showed UK retail sales volumes rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years, as renewed consumer confidence helped offset the sting of high inflation and rates. Between February and April, sales rose 0.8% from the previous three months, the biggest such increase since the three months to August 2021, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Sterling was last up 0.3% against the dollar at $1.2355. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2397 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2431 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2312 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2289(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against Swiss franc on Friday as markets raised bets on higher-for-longer interest rates to curb sticky inflation and nervously awaited a resolution to last-ditch U.S. debt ceiling talks.Apparent progress on Thursday in talks between President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy helped ease jitters, but markets remained on edge at any risk of a default ahead of a long bank holiday weekend in the U.S. The U.S. dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts was last down 0.2% on the day at 104.06. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9054(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9094 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9012(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against Japan's yen as markets were muted on Friday, with investors holding their breath as the White House and U.S. lawmakers edged towards a deal on funding government spending to avoid an economy-shattering default. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are closing in on an agreement that would raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items. The dollar edged away from a six-month high against the yen and last stood at 139.67, having reached 140.23 yen in the previous session, its highest since November. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.02(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.76(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.49(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 138.28(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares inched up on Friday on gains in mining and technology stocks although the main benchmarks were set for steep weekly losses on growing concerns over a slowing global economy and the debt ceiling talks in the United States.
At (GMT 10:49),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up from two-month lows on Friday, helped by a dip in the U.S. dollar as traders assessed the progress of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path ahead.
Spot gold was up 0.7% to $1,953.03 per ounce at 1002 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% to $1,952.90.
Oil prices were stable on Friday, as the market weighed conflicting messages on supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia ahead of the next OPEC+ policy meeting, a stronger U.S. dollar and worries of weaker-than-expected demand growth.
Brent crude was up 40 cents at $76.66 a barrel at 0959 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 54 cents to $72.37 a barrel.