Posted at 24 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Apr CPI (MoM) 1.2%,0.8% forecast,0.8%previous
• UK Apr CPI, n.s.a 130.40, 128.90 previous
•UK Apr Core RPI (MoM) 1.4%,2.1% forecast,0.7% previous
•UK Apr RPI (YoY) 11.4%,11.2% forecast,13.5% previous
•UK Apr RPI (MoM) 1.5%,1.3% forecast,0.7% previous
•UK Apr Core PPI Output (YoY) 6.0%, 7.3% forecast, 8.5% previous
•UK Apr PPI Output (YoY) 5.4%,8.6% forecast, 8.7% previous
•UK Apr PPI Input (YoY) 3.9%, 7.0% forecast, 7.6% previous
•UK Apr PPI Input (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Apr Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Apr CPI (YoY) 8.7%, 8.3% forecast, 10.1% previous
•German May Current Assessment 94.8,94.7 forecast, 95.0 previous
•German May Ifo Business Climate Index 91.7, 93.0 forecast, 93.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7% previous
•12:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) -8.1% previous
•13:00 EU May Belgium NBB Business Climate -6.0 forecast, -7.8 previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -0.695M forecast,-1.381M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -2.132M forecast,-0.127M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.804M forecast,1.461M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.057M forecast,0.080M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.024M forecast, 0.454M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.103M forecast, -0.341M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.920M forecast, 5.040M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.009M forecast, 0.250M previous
•17:00 US Apr M2 Money Supply (MoM) 20.82T previous
•17:00 US 5-Year Note Auction 3.500% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped against dollar on Wednesday but recovered some ground as talks over the U.S. debt ceiling continued without resolution. Representatives of President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans ended another round of debt ceiling talks on Tuesday with no signs of progress.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the federal government could no longer have enough money to pay all its bills as soon as June 1, raising the risk of a damaging default. The euro was steady against the dollar at 1.0786. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0824(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0899(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0752 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0755(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Wednesday after data showed British inflation cooled by much less than expected in April. Sterling initially rose after the data, which adds to the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates but was last down 0.17% at $1.239.Britain's year-on-year inflation rate slowed to 8.7% in April from 10.1% in March. Economists polled by Reuters expected a drop to 8.2%.Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, unexpectedly jumped to 6.8%, a 31-year high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2478 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2572 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2385 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2320(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Wednesday as the continued impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling soured risk appetite and boosted demand for the greenback. Representatives of U.S. President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans failed to reach an agreement during another round of debt ceiling talks on Tuesday with the deadline to raise the borrowing limit approaching. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve May meeting minutes are due during U.S. trading hours. The minutes come in the backdrop of debate on whether the U.S. central bank will raise rates again in June or opt for a pause. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9029(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9058 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8972 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8936(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against Japan's yen on Wednesday as uncertain U.S. debt ceiling negotiations sent investors to safe havens. Representatives of U.S. President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans ended another round of talks to raise the debt-ceiling without a resolution on Tuesday. Investors reckon this could spell worse trouble for the global economy. Meanwhile, minutes of the Fed's May 2-3 meeting are due at 1800 GMT. U.S. economic data have signalled a resilient economy and Fed officials have been broadly hawkish, pushing up the probability of a rate hike in June to near 30%. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.06(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.43(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.47(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 136.06(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
A fresh wave of selling hit European stock markets on Wednesday as little progress in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, a jump in UK core inflation and more losses in heavyweight luxury names hurt risk sentiment.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.65 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.59 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 1.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was stuck in a tight $10 range on Wednesday as traders waited to scrutinise minutes of the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting for guidance on U.S. interest rates, while the looming debt ceiling deadline prompted some safe-haven flows.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,974.76 per ounce by 1038 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.2% higher at $1,977.50
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after data showed U.S. inventories and fuel supplies tightening and following a warning from the Saudi energy minister to speculators raised the prospect of further OPEC+ output cuts.
Brent crude futures rose $1.09, or 1.42%, to $77.93 a barrel by 1048 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained $1.14, or 1.56%, to $74.05 a barrel.