Posted at 23 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Apr Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 13.667B,-0.572B forecast,18.886B previous
•UK Apr Public Sector Net Borrowing 24.74B ,17.50B forecast,20.71B previous
•French May Services PMI 52.8,54.2 forecast,54.6 previous
•French May S&P Global Composite PMI 51.4,52.3 forecast,52.4 previous
•French May Manufacturing PMI 46.1,46.0 forecast,45.6 previous
•German May Manufacturing PMI 42.9,45.0 forecast,44.5 previous
•German May Composite PMI 54.3,53.5 forecast,54.2 previous
•German May Services PMI 57.8,55.5 forecast,56.0 previous
•EU May S&P Global Composite PMI 53.3,53.7 forecast,54.1 previous
• EU May Services PMI 55.9,55.6 forecast,56.2 previous
•EU May Manufacturing PMI 44.6,46.2 forecast,45.8 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 46.9, 48.0 forecast,47.8 previous
•UK Services PMI 55.1, 55.5 forecast, 55.9 previous
•UK Composite PMI 53.9, 54.6 forecast, 54.9 previous
•Canada Apr RMPI (YoY) -10.8% ,-24.5% forecast, -16.5% previous
•Canada Apr RMPI (MoM) 2.9% ,0.7% forecast,-1.7% previous
•Canada Apr IPPI (YoY) -3.5% ,-5.6% forecast,-1.8% previous
•Canada Apr IPPI (MoM) -0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 1.5%, 1.6% previous
•US May S&P Global Composite PMI 54.5, 50.0 forecast,53.4 previous
•US May Manufacturing PMI 48.5 , 50.0 forecast,50.2 previous
•US May Services PMI 55.1 ,52.6 forecast, 53.6 previous
•US Apr New Home Sales 683K, 663K forecast,683K previous
•US May Richmond Manufacturing Index -15 ,-8 forecast,-10 previous
•US May Richmond Services Index -10,-29 forecast,-23 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•17:00 US 2-Year Note Auction 3.969% previous
•17:00 US M2 Money Supply (MoM) 20.82T previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday as investors were cautious ahead of the outcome of debt ceiling talks in the U.S., while nudging up expectations about future rate hikes after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Data showing the bloc’s business growth remained resilient but slowed slightly more than anticipated this month, failed to trigger significant price action in the bond market. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday on how to raise the U.S. government’s debt ceiling but vowed to keep talking. The euro slipped 0.3% to $1.0778 and is down over 2% for the month thus far, reversing two straight months of gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0824(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0899(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0752 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0755(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dropped to a one-month low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as UK business activity data came in below expectations.S&P Global’s UK composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which spans both the services and manufacturing sectors, showed services activity growth slowed more than expected this month, while manufacturing companies’ business shrank more than forecast.The pound dropped to as low as 1.2385 against the dollar following the data, the lowest since April 21. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2478 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2572 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2385 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2320(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strenthed against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors focused on U.S. debt ceiling talks, with this week's Federal Reserve policy minutes and economic data also on the radar. U.S. President Joe Biden and McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday on how to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before a possible default that could sink the economy but pledged to keep talking. Investors now await the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 2- 3 meeting on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9058 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8972 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8936(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar briefly touching a six-month peak against Japan's yen as expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer, while ongoing debt ceiling negotiations kept investors on edge.Among a slew of Federal Reserve heavyweights who spoke on Monday, some hinted that the central bank had further to go in tightening monetary policy.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that U.S. rates may have to go "north of 6%" for inflation to return to the Fed's 2% target, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank may still need to raise by another half-point this year.Strong resistance can be seen at 139.06(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.43(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.47(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 136.06(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday on weak updates from Julius Baer and Vivendi, while resilient euro zone business growth in May bolstered the chances of an interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank.
At (GMT 14:01),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 1.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended losses on Tuesday, pressured as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened on rising bets for higher interest rates, while markets awaited to see if lawmakers could avoid a debt ceiling default.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,958.96 per ounce by 1123 GMT while U.S. gold futures were down 0.9% to $1,959.60.
Oil rose on Tuesday supported by optimism the U.S. would avoid a debt default, a tighter market outlook and a warning from the Saudi energy minister to speculators that raised the prospect of further OPEC+ cuts to support the market.
Brent crude was up 89 cents, or 1.2%, at $76.88 a barrel by 1218 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 95 cents, or 1.3%, to $73.00.