Posted at 19 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Apr PPI (MoM) 0.3%, -0.5% forecast, -2.6% previous
•German Apr German PPI (YoY) 4.1%, 4.0% forecast, 7.5% previous
•Spanish Consumer Confidence 73.0, 78.9 forecast, 67.4 previous
• Canada Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,-0.8% forecast,-0.7% previous
• Canada Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -1.4%, -1.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 731 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 586 previous
Looking ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 14:55 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
• 15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•19:00 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Friday as recent strong U.S. economic data and hopes for a resolution in the debt debate took some shine off dollar. U.S. President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the top Republican in Washington, hope to finalize a deal on the debt ceiling after Biden returns from the Group of Seven meeting in Japan on Sunday. Two Fed policymakers said on Thursday, U.S. inflation does not look like it is cooling fast enough to allow the Federal to hit pause on the interest-rate hike campaign. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0793, just above its lowest for seven weeks .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0824(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0899(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0752 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0755(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was heading for its second straight weekly fall against the dollar on Friday, weighed down by a resurgent dollar and weakness in the British economy. Data released on Tuesday added to the downward pressure on sterling by making it more likely that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at the current 4.5% level. It showed that British unemployment ticked up to 3.9% in the three months to March and basic pay increased 6.7%Sterling was up 0.15% to $1.243 on Friday. It was set for a weekly loss of 0.17%, however, after falling 1.45% the previous week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2478 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2572 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2385 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2320(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss franc on Friday as optimism over a breakthrough in U.S. debt ceiling talks and robust economic data reduced the chances of a series of U.S. rate cuts this year. Negotiators for Joe Biden's Democrats told the president on Friday that they are making "steady progress" in talks with Republicans aimed at avoiding a U.S. default, just days after Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy underscored their determination to strike a deal to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9058 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8972 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8936(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollars dipped against Japan's yen on Friday as the greenback slipped ahead of a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets are currently pricing in a 63.3% chance of the U.S. central bank holding rates at the current level in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The dollar was trading around 0.12% weaker at 103.380 against a basket of global currencies, after hitting a two-month high the previous day at 103.630.Strong resistance can be seen at 139.06(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 139.43(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 137.47(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 136.06(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Friday, pushing the German DAX towards record highs as signs of progress in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations encouraged investors to pile into riskier assets.
At (GMT 12:40),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, helped by a slight retreat in the dollar, but were set for their biggest weekly drop in 3-1/2 months as hopes about U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations weighed on the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,964.99 per ounce by 0701 GMT. However, the metal was on track for a 2.2% weekly drop - its biggest since early February.
Oil prices rebounded on Friday from losses of more than 1% the previous day as investors turned cautiously optimistic over the fading risk of a U.S. debt default.
Brent futures rose $1.15, or 1.5%, to $77.01 a barrel by 1205 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude for July expiry climbed $1.16, or 1.6%, to $73.10.