Posted at 18 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish Trade Balance-0.16B, -0.72B forecast, 2.46B previous
•Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 3.027% ,2.623% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,818K forecast, 1,813K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 245.94K forecast,245.25K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 254K forecast,264K previous
•12:30 US May Philly Fed Prices Paid 8.10 forecast, 8.20 previous
•12:30 Canada Apr New Housing Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US May Philly Fed Employment -5.2 forecast,-0.2 previous
•12:30 US May Philly Fed CAPEX Index 2.30 forecast,-5.40 previous
•12:30 US May Philly Fed Business Conditions -11.3 forecast,-1.5 previous
•12:30 US May Philly Fed New Orders -25.7 forecast,-22.7 previous
•12:30 US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -19.8 forecast,-31.3 previous
•14:00 US Apr Existing Home Sales 4.30M forecast, 4.44M previous
•14:00 US Apr Existing Home Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 2.4% previous
•14:00 US Apr Leading Index (MoM) -0.6% forecast,-1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:05 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•13:30 US Fed Barr Testimony
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as global risk sentiment improved on optismism that a deal would be reached in Washington to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a U.S. default that would lead to a recession. On Wednesday, the U.S President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy underscored their determination to reach an agreement soon, pledging to negotiate directly on a deal amid estimates that the Treasury could run out of money by the start of June. The euro slipped as much as 0.3% to $1.0805, its lowest level in six weeks . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0824(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0899(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0752 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0755(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped a three-week low against the dollar on Thursday, as investors remained cautious after the pound’s recent rally, with the economy stagnating and the labour market softening. Data on Tuesday showed Britain’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to March, while basic pay increased 6.7%, below expectations in a poll. The pound was last down 0.4% against a broadly stronger dollar to $1.2435. On Wednesday it hit a three-week low of $1.2422.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2478 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2572 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2439(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2385(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered near a seven-week high on optimism over U.S. debt ceiling talks. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. The dollar was trading about 0.18% up at 103.070 against a basket of global currencies, after U.S. government leaders agreed to negotiate to avoid a damaging debt default. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 09028 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8972 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8936(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollars strengthened against Japan's yen on Thursday after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while investors scaled back Federal Reserve easing expectations. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. Around a month ago, markets were pricing in around a 20% chance of a cut.The rate traders have priced for the Fed's December meeting stands at 4.525%, implying around 55 basis points of easing by year-end, down around 5 basis points from the day before. Strong resistance can be seen at 138.02(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.65(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 136.76(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 136.06(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks opened higher on Thursday, echoing the upbeat sentiment on Wall Street on signs that Washington was edging closer to a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a default.
At (GMT 11:56),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.53 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.64 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.90 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched lower on Thursday as the dollar held firm and optimism over U.S. debt-ceiling talks reduced the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,977.79 per ounce by 0653 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $1,982.10.
Oil prices eased on Thursday as traders warily watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, after surging in the previous session on optimism over U.S. fuel demand.
Brent crude futures dipped 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $76.59 a barrel as of 0841 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.49 a barrel.